NCAA Basketball
(1/10/23) 9:00 PM Eastern.
Spread: North Carolina +4.5 / Virginia -4.5
Moneyline: North Carolina +165 / Virginia -195
Total: Over / Under 132
The Pick: North Carolina +4.5.
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The Tarheels are back to playing the type of ball that had them as the #1 seed before the season began. Winning 6 of their L7 games and averaging 83.8 points per game in the process. Their only loss in that stretch came against an up and coming Pittsburgh team and they still only lost by 2. Virginia has rolled off a few wins of their own but have covered just 1 of their last 10 games and 0 of their last 6 home games. Both teams have struggled against the spread this season but UNC is 7-2 ATS L9 games following an ATS Win.
Armando Bacot and North Carolina’s rebounding advantage is the key to this game. Previous Virginia teams possessed a stronger interior presence and good rebounder, but this UVA team lacks that. Jayden Gardner is their leading rebounder with 5.3 rebounds a game. North Carolina has 3 players averaging more than that and it’s led by Bacot’s 11.2. Kadin Shedrick brings some size for Virginia but he’s no match for Bacot. In their two meetings last year Bacot combined for 39 points and a whopping 33 rebounds.
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This takes us to the inevitable double teaming of Armando Bacot. A Staple of the Cavs stingy post defense. This will leave players open on the perimeter to hit some shots. Bacot’s development as a passer is big here. Through their first 12 games the ACC leading scorer had just 15 assists to show for it. But he has 12 assists in his last 3 and recorded at least 3 assists in each game. He’s finding the open man when they close on him.
This is a clash of play style, the Tarheels play a more up tempo style get their offense out in transition while the Cavaliers pace of play is the 359th slowest of 363 division 1 schools. However, North Carolina just played a similar team in Notre Dame. The Fighting Irish rank 351st but North Carolina had no issue throwing up 80 points. UVA is a much better team than ND is, but UNC has shown the ability to play their style of game regardless of pace.
North Carolina won both games against UVA last season and covered in both as well. In fact they won their first meeting by 16 and their second by 20.
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