North Carolina Tarheels vs Oregon Ducks NCAAF Free Pick, Odds, Preview, Prediction, 12/28/22

NCAAF

(12/28/22) 8:00 PM Eastern.

Spread: North Carolina +13 / Oregon -13

Moneyline: North Carolina +400 / Oregon -500

Total: Over / Under 75

The Pick: Oregon -13. (Bonus Free Pick at the Bottom!)

Both teams will be without some key contributors in this game, but the 2 main attractions will suit up. North Carolina QB Drake Maye and Oregon QB Bo Nix will start, two 2023 Heisman candidates.

The Ducks take a hit to their secondary losing Star CB Christian Gonzalez to the draft but that’s their only real loss. They’re out a couple other rotational pieces, guys that can be replaced.

The Tarheels on the other hand got hit hard. Maye’s favorite target, UNC leading WR, and one of the top pass catchers in all of College Football, Jeter Downs, has entered the transfer portal. They’re also down 3 starters in their secondary to the portal. LB Noah Taylor was one of their best defensive players and he got hurt in late October and will be out for this game too.

Oregon and UNC also lost their offensive coordinators. Oregon’s OC left for the Arizona State HC job while UNC’s is taking the same position at Wisconsin.

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Oregon’s offense had a massive advantage in this game even without all the North Carolina exits. North Carolina ranks 115th out of 131 FBS programs allowing 438.2 total yards per game, 121st in passing yards allowed, and 95th in yards per rush allowed. Oregon is a top 10 scoring offense that averages 507.8 yards per game (4th), 291.5 through the air and 216.3 on the ground. Oregon ranks 1st in completion percentage, eighth in yards per pass, and first in sack rate allowed. North Carolina ranks just 103rd in sack rate. With plenty of time to throw and an already awful secondary that’s decimated by opt outs, Bo Nix and company are going to light up the scoreboard.

On the flip side UNC’s offense is going to move the ball but they won’t be as efficient or score like Oregon will. Even with one of the best WR’s in the country and Drake Maye’s favorite target on the field, North Carolina struggled to end the season, averaging just 18 points in their last 3 games. The loss of their offensive coordinator only makes matters worse.

Ultimately this Oregon offense is going to tear apart one of the worst defenses in College football and the Ducks defense will provide a few timely stops. Oregon’s defense hasn’t been sharp this season but UNC has struggled lately and is without Maye’s #1 target. Head Coach Dan Lanning oversaw one of the greatest defenses in College Football history (Georgia 2021) and he’s had a month to prepare. His defense will be ready.