NFL Prop It Up: Atlanta Falcons vs Green Bay Packers — Thursday, September 24, 2026
8:15 PM ET
Spread: ATL +4.5 / GB -4.5
ML: ATL +205 / GB -250
Over/Under: 43
Free Prop: Drake London Over 5.5 Rec (-107)
The headline tonight is Michael Penix Jr., returning as Atlanta's starter for the first time since tearing his ACL last November, and that return is exactly why this prop works. Across Penix's nine starts in 2025, London drew 94 targets and turned them into 60 catches, an average of well over six receptions per game. That's not a small sample or a hot streak — it's a full season of two guys building real chemistry, and it clears this number comfortably on its own.
The Falcons need him now more than ever. Atlanta is 0-2 and was blown out 34-3 by Carolina last week, with backup quarterbacks combining for just 145 yards and three interceptions. With a real starting quarterback back in the huddle, London is the obvious first read and safety valve for a game plan that's desperate to find a rhythm.
The matchup helps, too. Green Bay is still without Micah Parsons, who remains on PUP rehabbing a torn ACL and won't be back until at least Week 5. That's the Packers' best pass rusher off the field, which means more time in the pocket for Penix and fewer negative plays disrupting the passing game — exactly the kind of clean pocket that turns into easy completions for a team's top target.
Bottom Line: London's history with Penix already clears this number on average, and he's walking into a matchup without Green Bay's best pass rusher to disrupt it. Lean Drake London Over 5.5 receptions.
Odds referenced at time of writing and subject to change. Please gamble responsibly — if you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
