NFL Free Pick: Cincinnati Bengals vs Miami Dolphins — Sunday, October 11, 2026
1:00 PM ET
Spread: CIN -7 / MIA +7
ML: CIN -340 / MIA +270
Over/Under: 43.5
Pick of the Week: Dolphins +7
Cincinnati's offense has become one-dimensional, and that's a problem for a team laying a touchdown on the road. The Bengals are averaging just 3.6 yards per carry, and last week they managed only 23 rushing yards on 15 attempts against Jacksonville. Relief isn't likely to come in Miami, either, where the Dolphins are holding opponents to the same 3.6 yards per carry. When Cincinnati can't run, everything falls on Joe Burrow's arm, and that's exactly where things have gone wrong late in games.
The Bengals have dropped two straight one-score games, and both turned on Burrow mistakes in the fourth quarter. At Pittsburgh, Cincinnati had driven to the Steelers' 36-yard line in the final minute of a 30-27 game when Burrow was strip-sacked while trying to escape pressure, ending the comeback. A week later against Jacksonville, he was intercepted at the Jaguars' 10-yard line early in the fourth quarter with the Bengals trailing by six, a costly empty trip in what became a 22-17 loss. It's part of a larger pattern: even before that interception, ESPN Research had Burrow tied for the league lead in fourth-quarter and overtime turnovers since the start of the 2024 season.
Miami, on the other hand, has a real path to controlling this game on the ground. Cincinnati's run defense is allowing 4.5 yards per carry, and Pittsburgh gashed it for 138 yards at 6.0 per attempt. The Dolphins are averaging 4.3 yards per carry on the season and ran for 6.7 per attempt last week at Minnesota, where their defense also held the Vikings out of the end zone entirely. A steady ground game shortens the contest and keeps Burrow on the sideline, which is exactly how an underdog stays inside the number.
That number carries real value here, too. With the total sitting at just 43.5, a seven-point cushion goes a long way in a game projected to stay low-scoring, and a Bengals win by exactly seven, one of the most common margins in the NFL, only results in a push. Cincinnati also enters with Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins both questionable after a shortened week of practice, safety Kyle Dugger ruled out, and a bye week up next.
Bottom Line: Cincinnati can't run the ball, has lost two straight on late Burrow mistakes, and is being asked to win by more than a touchdown on the road. Miami can lean on its ground game in a low-scoring setup where seven points goes a long way. Lean Dolphins +7.
Odds referenced at time of writing and subject to change. Please gamble responsibly — if you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
