NFC North Player Prop Futures
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Minnesota Vikings: Kirk Cousins Under 4300.5 Passing Yards.
Kirk’s gone over this prop in just 2 of his 8 full seasons as a starter. He’s done it just once in 5 seasons with the Vikings. The Vikings ranked 3rd in Pass Attempts and had the 5th fewest rush attempts in 2022. Despite losing Dalvin Cook, they’ll be more balanced in 2023 as they return every starter to their offensive line.
Vikings HC Kevin O’Connell comes from the McVay and Zone Blocking coaching tree that’s foundation is built on running the ball well. The Vikings have made the rushing attack a point of emphasis in 2023 and with the continuity on the OL and comfortability of being in Year 2 with O’Connell’s system, the run game will improve. The Vikings also feature elite receiving weapons. Justin Jefferson, Rookie WR Jordan Addison from USC, TJ Hockenson, and even KJ Osborn had a nice season last year.
Teams will be forced to respect the MIN pass attack and will be more willing to do so this year now that Dalvin Cook isn’t in the MIN backfield. The Vikings will get more favorable run looks. They’ll be able to move down the field with balance. Last year with everything forcing Kirk to carry the offensive load through the air he still needed the 17th game to go over this passing total. Kirk’s also a smaller QB who turns 35 before the season. Even if he misses even just 1 game this prop gets very difficult to hit.
Detroit Lions: Aman Ra St Brown Over 975.5 Receiving Yards.
With 265 targets the last two years there’s nobody Jared Goff likes to throw the ball to more. He reeled in 106 of his 146 targets last year for 1,161 yards. He also did that in 16 games. With fellow WR Jameson Williams suspended for the first 6 games, he’s going to get peppered with targets early on. And when Williams gets back the field’s going to open up underneath for St. Brown. He may see a little less volume, but the quality will improve for the Slot WR. Not to mention this Lions offense is only getting better as they enter year two under OC Ben Johnson. QB Jared Goff had a career year in year 1 under Johnson and the Lions also ranked 11th in rush yards per game. St Brown is going to be the #1 WR on a very good Lions offense.
Green Bay Packers: A.J. Dillon Over 6.5 Rushing Touchdowns.
Aaron Rodgers is out and Jordan Love’s in. Entering his first year as a full-time starter the Packers will lean on the ground game, especially in the Red Zone where inexperienced QB’s tend to struggle. Dillon scored 7 touchdowns last year and received plenty of work in goal to go situations. This Offensive line returns 13 members from last year. The Packers added both a TE and WR in the 2nd round of the draft too. Green Bay’s offense is poised to have success despite Rodgers walking out the door. Jordan Love’s no Rookie either, he’s been in the league for 3 years learning HC Matt LaFleur’s system. It’s an already successful rushing attack in an offense that’s only getting more explosive on the outside.
Chicago Bears: Justin Fields Under 850.5 Rushing Yards.
Fields won’t need to carry the offense as much with his legs this year. The Bears made their offense a priority this year. They drafted Darnell Wright #10 overall to play RT and signed Nate Davis from TN to play Guard to join 3 returning starters on the OL. They signed TE Robert Tonyan in FA and Traded for DJ Moore from CAR to compliment the receiving core of Cole Kmet, Darnell Mooney, and Chase Claypool. They lost RB David Montgomery in FA but Khalil Herbert replaces him after averaging 5.7 yards per carry on 129 carries last year. They also signed D’Onta Foreman who ran for 914 yards with the Texans last season.
This is a much more talented offense than a year ago. Fields won’t have to carry the ball 10 times a game for the offense to move. It’s also unlikely he averages 7.1 yards per carry. Then there’s the health factor, Fields isn’t a big QB and running QB’s don’t last too long. For comparison, Lamar Jackson has only gone over 800 yards in 2 of his 5 NFL Seasons and Cam Newton was never able to. So far Fields is 1 for 2. The Bears will improve from a season ago but their win total sits at 7.5 for a reason. They could find themselves playing meaningless games very early on and if that’s the case Fields health will be an even bigger priority. 850 yards is hard enough for an NFL RB to get, let alone a QB.