(1/13/23) 7:00 PM Eastern.
Spread: Nebraska +15 / Purdue -15
Total: Over / Under 132.5
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The Pick: NEB/PUR Under 132.5.
Both offenses play at a snails place which is why Nebraska is 14-3 on Under’s and Purdue is 10-6. Per adjusted tempo stats the Cornhuskers rank 289th nationally and the Boilermakers rank 322nd. Both of these teams like to play inside as well and have friendly defensive matchups tonight.
Purdue has a strong offense but most of that gets done inside with Edey. Purdue ranks 249th in 3 PT % at 32.2% and Nebraska’s defense is holding teams to 32.1% from deep as well. The Husker’s will keep the deep ball in check. Purdue hit’s 55.5% on 2 pointers and they’ll be able to score inside the arc but the key to tonight is Nebraska’s defensive discipline. Nebraska ranks 3rd in opponents free throw attempt percentage in College Basketball. When Purdue takes their average 18.9 seconds per possession, Nebraska isn’t going to give them freebies at the line.
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On the other side of the court, Nebraska’s offense is just plain bad with an adjusted offensive efficiency of 179th. They don’t even shoot 30% from outside, which is why they rank 239th in 3pt attempt %. 58% of their points come on 2’s this season and it’s tough sledding inside against Purdue when the 7 foot 2 Zach Edey is defending the rim for an average of 31 minutes per game. And like Nebraska, Purdue excels at clean defense. They rank 1st in free throw attempt percentage on defense.
3 of their last 4 H2H matchups have gone Under. For NEB the Under is 6-2 L8 road games, 6-1 following a SU Loss, 9-1 following an ATS Loss, and 6-0 L6 games vs teams with a winning % greater than .600. For PUR the Under is 4-0 L4 Home games, 5-2 L7 overall, and 5-1 L6 following a SU win.
Slow offenses against tough clean defenses. The shooting percentages would have to be through the roof on the limited possessions to push this over the total. Take the Under.