NBA Free Pick: Washington Wizards vs Cleveland Cavaliers — Wednesday, October 28, 2026
7:00 PM ET
Spread: WAS +10.5 / CLE -10.5
ML: WAS +310 / CLE -395
Over/Under: 239.5
Pick of the Week: Wizards +10.5
Cleveland is being priced like a juggernaut, but very little about its start supports a number this big. The Cavaliers are 2-1, yet they rank just 18th in offensive rating, 13th in defensive rating, and 15th in net rating (-0.6), per Cleaning the Glass. Their two wins came by four points over Brooklyn and by two in overtime against Minnesota, and they have yet to cover a spread this season. Ball security has been a problem as well. Cleveland is averaging 18.7 turnovers per game, the third-most in the league, and turnover issues tend to be one of the more reliable early-season warning signs.
Washington, meanwhile, has been far more competitive than its reputation suggests. The Wizards are 2-2 with wins over Milwaukee and Chicago, and they have yet to lose by more than 10 points. They've done that while shooting just 29.4% from three, which ranks 27th in the league. With Trae Young running the offense, averaging 11.0 assists and dishing out at least nine in every game, those open looks should start to fall. Anthony Davis (22.8 points per game) and Alex Sarr give Washington real size inside, and the defense has taken a major step forward, allowing 114.5 points per game after giving up 124.9 last season.
The Wizards also get a boost tonight. No. 1 overall pick AJ Dybantsa, who missed the first four games with a left ankle sprain, is listed as available on the official injury report and is expected to make his NBA debut. The schedule helps, too. Cleveland visits Atlanta on Thursday, so the Cavaliers are on the front end of a back-to-back and have little reason to push their starters' minutes if they build a lead.
Bottom Line: Cleveland hasn't played like a team that should be laying double digits, while Washington arrives with Dybantsa debuting, Young running the show, and a shooting slump that's due to turn. Lean Wizards +10.5.
Odds referenced at time of writing and subject to change. Please gamble responsibly — if you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
