NBA Free Pick: Sacramento Kings vs Los Angeles Clippers — Wednesday, October 21, 2026
10:30 PM ET
Spread: SAC +5.5 / LAC -5.5
ML: SAC +155 / LAC -190
Over/Under: 226.5
Pick of the Week: Kings +5.5
The Clippers team taking the floor tonight looks nothing like the one that went 42-40 last season, and the number hasn't fully caught up. Kawhi Leonard is gone, traded to Toronto this summer, and so are Ivica Zubac, Bennedict Mathurin, and John Collins. Leonard alone posted a 13.8-point per-100-possession on/off swing last season, the third-largest among players with 1,000-plus minutes for one team. The return on that deal was supposed to soften the blow, but Brandon Ingram is sidelined after May heel surgery revealed a partially torn Achilles, with no firm return date. Bradley Beal (knee) and Max Strus (partially torn plantar fascia) are out too, along with Jordan Miller and Yanic Konan Niederhäuser. That's L.A.'s second-best creator and its two best shooters off the wing, all in street clothes. Only three of the ten players who logged 10-plus minutes in last year's opener remain on the roster.
That leaves Darius Garland to carry almost everything. Garland is a quality lead guard, but the healthy group around him is thin on scoring: Kris Dunn averaged 7.3 points last season, Brook Lopez 8.5, and Derrick Jones Jr. 10.1, with a 19-year-old rookie in Keaton Wagler being asked to soak up big minutes. A team that played at the league's third-slowest pace last season (No. 28) and now has this few reliable scorers isn't built to pull away, and every possession it doesn't create is one fewer chance to cover a number this size.
Meanwhile, Sacramento's ugly 2025-26 numbers paint a misleading picture of what it brings tonight. The Kings' core barely shared the floor last year: Domantas Sabonis played just 19 games, Keegan Murray 23, Zach LaVine 39, and De'Andre Hunter two. Tonight all four are available. Sabonis, who averaged 15.8 points, 11.4 rebounds, and 4.1 assists, gets one of the best matchups on the board against a Clippers frontcourt that lost Zubac at the deadline, is missing Konan Niederhäuser, and leans on a 38-year-old Lopez. LaVine shot 47.9% from the field and 39.0% from three last season, and rookie point guard Darius Acuff Jr. led the team at 17.3 points per game in the preseason while hitting 42.1% from deep.
This is also a building where the Kings have already won. Sacramento went into the Intuit Dome on March 14 and beat a Clippers team that still had Leonard, 118-109. Most books are dealing this at 4.5, so grabbing +5.5 adds a full point of cushion in a game where L.A. will have to grind out offense all night.
Bottom Line: The Clippers are missing Leonard, Ingram, Beal, and Strus, and they don't have the scoring to pull away from a Kings team getting Sabonis, LaVine, and Murray back together. Lean Kings +5.5.
Odds referenced at time of writing and subject to change. Please gamble responsibly — if you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
