NBA Free Pick: Memphis Grizzlies vs Portland Trail Blazers — Thursday, October 29, 2026
10:00 PM ET
Spread: MEM +7.5 / POR -7.5
ML: MEM +240 / POR -300
Over/Under: 232.5
Pick of the Week: Grizzlies +7.5
Portland's 3-0 start has the market pricing the Blazers as 7.5-point favorites, but a big part of that start is built on numbers that won't hold. Opponents are shooting just 29% from three against the Blazers, and opponent three-point percentage is one of the least stable stats in basketball, driven far more by luck than by defense. Portland is also shooting 51.1% from the field and scoring 129.3 points per game, a pace that included an 18-of-36 night from deep against the Lakers. When those shooting numbers come back to earth on both ends, the gap between these teams shrinks considerably, and 7.5 points becomes a lot to lay.
Memphis, meanwhile, has done nothing but win and cover. The Grizzlies are 4-0 both straight up and against the spread, with road wins at Golden State, Sacramento, and Utah. Ty Jerome has been one of the league's best scorers, averaging 29.8 points and 6.5 assists on 50.6% shooting, and he opened the season with a 45-point night. The defense has been just as reliable, ranking No. 5 in defensive rating, and the Grizzlies are pulling down 50 rebounds and blocking 6.3 shots per game. Rookie Cameron Boozer has been a big part of that, averaging 10.5 rebounds.
The situation also favors Memphis. The Grizzlies come in with two full days of rest, while Portland has just one after returning home from Tuesday's game in Los Angeles. Zach Edey is off the injury report and available, and the Blazers' frontcourt is thinner than usual, with Robert Williams III listed as doubtful and Shaedon Sharpe already out following meniscus surgery. That opens the door for Edey and Boozer to control the glass. And with the line at 7.5, even a seven-point Portland win still cashes.
Bottom Line: Portland's defensive numbers are due for a correction, while an unbeaten, well-rested Memphis team arrives healthy against a short-handed Blazers frontcourt. Lean Grizzlies +7.5.
Odds referenced at time of writing and subject to change. Please gamble responsibly — if you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
