NBA Free Pick: Detroit Pistons vs New York Knicks — Tuesday, October 27, 2026
8:00 PM ET
Spread: DET +3.5 / NYK -3.5
ML: DET +130 / NYK -155
Over/Under: 219.5
Pick of the Week: Knicks -3.5
An 0-3 start has the defending champions priced like a team in crisis, but the numbers behind those losses tell a different story. New York is getting good looks, ranking in the top 10 in multiple shot-quality and expected field-goal metrics, and simply isn't converting them. Per Synergy, only the Bulls, Heat, and Raptors have fallen further short of their expected shot quality. Compared with last season, the Knicks are shooting roughly 3% worse at the rim, 5% worse from three, and 16% worse from midrange. This is the same starting five that led the entire playoffs in both field-goal and three-point percentage during a 16-3 title run. Jalen Brunson, who averaged 26.0 points a year ago, is shooting just 39% from the field and 26% from deep. That isn't who he is, and it won't last.
The losses have also been far closer than the record suggests. New York fell by six to a 76ers team led by Tyrese Maxey, Jaylen Brown, and LeBron James, then lost by four on the road to Jayson Tatum, Paul George, and the Celtics. Against Orlando, the Knicks led by 10 with 9:20 to play before falling by nine, as the Magic's bench went 10-for-16 from three behind Anthony Black (5-of-7) and Tristan Da Silva (5-of-9). Shooting nights like that rarely repeat. The Knicks have been in every game against quality opponents, and now they return to the Garden desperate for their first win. After Sunday's loss, Brunson put it plainly: "Everything falls on my shoulders."
Detroit, meanwhile, arrives without its starting center. Jalen Duren, who averaged 19.5 points and 10.5 rebounds last season, will miss at least two weeks with a right hamstring strain, and Ausar Thompson is nursing a right ankle sprain that kept him out Sunday. That leaves John Collins and Paul Reed to handle Karl-Anthony Towns, who is averaging 21.0 points and 12.0 rebounds and has been the one Knicks starter shooting well. The Pistons' 3-0 start has also been fueled by 42.0% shooting from three, including Duncan Robinson hitting over 53% on nearly 10 attempts per game. That pace is due to cool off.
Even so, the public has rushed to back the unbeaten team, with roughly 65% of spread tickets on Detroit. That's exactly the kind of overreaction to a three-game sample that creates value on a proven champion playing at home against a short-handed opponent.
Bottom Line: The Knicks' shot quality points to an offensive breakout, and Detroit is missing Duren with Towns waiting inside. Lean Knicks -3.5.
Odds referenced at time of writing and subject to change. Please gamble responsibly — if you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
