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Navy Midshipmen vs SMU Mustangs NCAAF Free Pick, Odds, Preview, Prediction, 10/14/22


NCAAF

(10/14/22) 8:15 PM Eastern.

Spread: Navy +12.5 / SMU -12.5

Moneyline: Navy +360 / SMU -450

Total: Over / Under 57


Friday night football features an American conference showdown between the Navy Midshipmen and SMU Mustangs. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30p.m. eastern time at Gerald J. Ford stadium.


Navy Midshipmen (2-3)


The run game is once again strong for Navy. They currently average 231.8 yards per game, good for 24th in the country and 2nd in the American conference. Fullback Daba Fofana leads the team in rushing, accounting for 275 rushing yards and 3 touchdowns. QB Tai Lavatai leads the team with 69 rushing attempts. They don’t pass much but Lavatai does have 524 passing yards on just 27 completions to go along with 2 passing touchdowns.


The Navy defense has been stout against the run, surrendering just 86.4 yards per game, good for 9th in the country and 1st in the American. Their defense has struggled against the pass however, allowing 262.2 passing yards per game, 3rd worst in the American. The pass rush has gotten home, racking up 14 sacks in just 5 games.


SMU Mustangs (2-3)


Tanner Mordecai and the Mustangs offense has moved the ball up and down the field on everyone, averaging 500.2 yards per game, 13th in the Nation. They are a pass first offense, averaging 355 passing yards a game, ranking 8th in College Football. The ground game hasn’t been nearly as strong, averaging just 145.2 yards per game, ranking 148th. WR Rashee Rice is having an incredible season, reeling in 46 passes for 687 yards and 4 touchdowns. There’s still 7 games to build on his breakout campaign.


Defense has been optional. They’re surrendering 28.6 points per game, ranking 156th. They’re middle of the pack in the American in terms of passing yards allowed at 240.4, but the run defense has been leaky. They’re giving up 176.4 rushing yards per game, 3rd worst in the American. Over their last 3 games they’re letting up an average of 39 points, “holding” Maryland to 34 was their best performance 3 weeks ago.


The Pick


Navy/SMU Over 57. This is offensive strength vs defensive weakness for both teams. Navy runs the football with the best of them, averaging 231.8 rushing yards (24th in the country) and SMU lets up 176.4 rushing yards per game. (3rd worst in the American). On the flip side SMU likes to air it out early and often, the Mustangs rank 8th in the nation at 355 passing yards per game while Navy’s defense allows 262.2 passing yards per game (3rd worst in the American). These offenses will be playing into their strengths all night long. The Over is 5-2 the last 7 meetings between these two and 4-1 when playing at SMU. The Over is also 4-1 in Navy’s last 5 in conference games and 4-1 in the Mustangs last 5 at home. Points, Points, Points.


WinMyBets NCAAF Pick: NAVY/SMU Over 57.


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