MLB Free Pick: Minnesota Twins vs Athletics — Wednesday, August 26, 2026

9:05 PM ET

Spread: MIN -1.5 (+115) / ATH +1.5 (-135)

ML: MIN -135 / ATH +125

Over/Under: 10.5

Free Pick: Twins RL (-1.5) +115

The gap between these two teams is bigger than tonight's price suggests. Minnesota (64-69) is a flawed club, but the A's (52-81) are one of the worst teams in baseball, sitting nearly 30 games under .500. Its bullpen has been especially bad, carrying the single worst ERA in MLB this season at 5.67. That matters specifically for a run line bet: Minnesota doesn't just need to win tonight, it needs to win by two or more, and no bullpen in the league has done a worse job protecting a lead once a game turns over to it.

Connor Prielipp's 5.57 ERA is a real concern on paper, but he's not walking into a spot where he needs to be great. Minnesota has a top-third offense this season (10th in MLB in runs scored), and it's facing a below-average A's lineup (20th) backed by the league's worst bullpen. Even a modest lead built early has a real chance to grow late against a relief unit that's struggled all season.

Two things are worth being upfront about. Center fielder Byron Buxton left last night's game with a back injury and is considered day-to-day, so his status for tonight carries some uncertainty. The Twins are also just 3-2 in their last five meetings with the A's this season, including a 4-2 loss in this very series last night. Still, in each of the three wins during that stretch, Minnesota covered -1.5, and A's starter J.T. Ginn's respectable 3.60 ERA doesn't change the fact that the bullpen behind him remains the worst in the league.

Bottom Line: Minnesota's top-third offense against the league's worst bullpen is a real edge for a bet that needs an extra run, even accounting for the Buxton uncertainty. Lean Twins -1.5 (+115).

Odds referenced at time of writing and subject to change. Please gamble responsibly — if you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.