7:30 PM Eastern.
Spread: Heat -1.5 / Mavericks +1.5
ML: Heat -125 / Mavericks +105
Total: Over / Under 219.5
The Pick: Miami Heat -1.5.
Miami got healthy and is back to playing ball that led them to the Eastern Conference Finals In 2022. Since Jimmy Butler returned in early December the Heat have gone 12-7 with him in the line-up. Couple of those losses came when he wasn’t exactly 100% either. The Heat have won 7 of their last 10 games and have fared well vs Dallas. Luka averages just 20.8 PPG against Miami in his career. The Heat are 9-4-1 ATS L14 vs Dallas and 15-5-1 ATS L21 in Dallas. Miami’s also covered in 5 of their L7 and 5 straight road games vs teams with a winning record. In Dallas’s L10 games they’re 4-6 SU and 2-8 ATS. They’re also losing by an average of 14 points in their last 3 games. With Miami back to playing elite defense (108.7 Defensive Rating since January, ranks 2nd in the NBA) it’s going to be tough for this Dallas team to bust out of the slump. It rests on Luka to carry this team and he’s up against one of his toughest opponents. Miami is a middle of the pack offense but the Mavs defense has been awful with a defensive rating of 122.6. That ranks 29th. The Miami Heat keep cooking tonight!