Major League Players Club MLB Futures 1-5 Units (8/5/24)

MLB

2 Picks. SD Padres to win NL Pennant +1,200 (3 Units).

SD currently sits half a game up in the 2nd wildcard spot and 4.5 games back from the Dodgers in the NL West. They're one of the hottest teams in baseball and we love what they've done at the deadline. They bolstered one of MLB’s best bullpens by adding Jason Adams and Tanner Scott. Then they also went out and snagged Martin Perez. Perez doesn't project to start any playoff games, but he'll be a key cog in getting them there.

This could very well be the best pitching staff come playoff time. Starters Dylan Cease and Michael King have been exceptional for San Diego. King most of the season except for a little rough path in the beginning. They're both high strikeout guys which is what plays in October. The Knuckleballer Matt Waldron doesn't get enough credit, he's allowed 2ER or less in 14 of his 23 starts. The Padres IL holds some key pieces. Two big names to join their starting rotation, Joe Musgrove and Yu Darvish. Musgrove's nearing his return and is a low 3, high 2 ERA type of Ace. Yu Darvish is a bit further out from his return, but his career success is well documented. He had a 3.2 ERA through 11 starts before getting injured. LHP Wandy Peralta is also coming back, another great option out of the bullpen. He had a sub 3 ERA each of his 3 seasons in NY before joining SD. He struggled early with the Padres, as did Michael King, but he tossed scoreless outing in 24 of his last 28 appearances. One of the 4 was his final appearance when he left with an injury.

Won't need all those starters come playoff time but Waldron and Perez are good enough options to keep Dan Diego's playoff push alive and well If the Dodgers struggles continue, they could even take the NL West. It's their bullpen that'll really play come playoff time. It's how the Phillies have done it the last couple seasons. Philly didn't have the starting rotation to win the NL East, but they had an October bullpen. Only need a few good starters in the post-season with all the time off between games and SD has that with the top bullpen behind them.Still have to score runs to win games and the Padres lineup doesn't lack talent. They have a few underperformers this season, but they have the horses. A lot of Veteran guys who know how to take professional at bats. They've been swinging it well since the All-Star break and Super Star Fernando Tatis is on the IL. Positive news with his recovery and he likely rejoins the team in August. This current Padres team is good enough to win the NL Pennant and they've got big reinforcements on the way. Good Value.

Baltimore Orioles to be the 1 Seed in the AL +250 (3 Units).

We've got the top spot in the AL going to an East team. Cleveland currently holds the 1 seed, but they didn't do enough at the deadline to hold it. Their starting rotation just isn't good enough. They will get Alex Cobb back from injury soon, but he hasn't pitched since 2023. He's been a high 3's ERA guy over the last few years, but it takes time to acclimate. Outside of Tanner Bibbee the rest of this rotation has ERA's above 4 of the last Month. They're younger guys approaching innings limits. Their bullpen ranks 1st in ERA but we believe San Diego has the best bullpen in baseball right now. CLE’s struggles in the starting rotation has put a heavy tax on their bullpen arms. Outside of Barlow and Clase every single reliever is on pace for a season high in innings. Clase and Barlow will also come close. We expect regression from this Unit. The Cleveland offense has a .714 OPS on the season and they're 26th in OPS since the Break. Just too big a drop off from their top hitters and the rest of their lineup. They also have the 6th toughest strength of schedule remaining while BAL and NY rank 23rd and 27th.

The Orioles and Yankees have the same record with Baltimore holding the tiebreaker with a 6-4 head-to-head record. They're set to play 3 more games in the Bronx at the end of September. We have this race a hell of a lot closer than +250 or even +200 for just the outright division win. This is a great buy low spot-on Baltimore after they played terrible baseball for a few weeks. Their 2nd game of the 4-game set vs Cleveland was the season low point. Between bad defense, mental miscues, and overall lack of effort it was as bad as it could get. We have that as their turning point, and they most certainly responded by throwing up 7 and 9 runs in 2 wins following. They did a lot of damage against an elite Guardians bullpen too.

3 of their most productive hitters have been slumping in Adley Rutschman, Ryan Mountcastle, and Ryan O'Hearn. Those 3 are going to turn it on and all 3 of them recorded hits in each of the last 2 games of the Cleveland series. Our AL ROTY Pick at +3,000 Odds, Colton Cowser, was moved to the leadoff spot and is on fire with a 1.092 OPS since the break. The O's called up top prospect Jackson Holiday and he's got a 1.254 OPS in 5 games since. Gunnar Henderson is hitting over .458 over the past week and has been one of the best hitters all year. Then there’s baseball’s most underrated and underappreciated hitter, Anthony Santander, a switch hitter with 32 Homeruns. They also added Eloy Gimenez who's great vs Lefties and off to a nice start. Baltimore's 4th in OPS since the break without some of their best hitters producing and we're all in on them turning it on.

Pitching wise Corbin Burnes and Grayson Rodriguez are as good a duo as you'll get. Zach Eflin was a great pickup who's tossed a quality start in each of his first 2 appearances for Baltimore. Trevor Rogers’ debut wasn't great for Baltimore, but he had been pitching very well leading up to it and we trust he'll settle in. He's also spent his entire career in the NL and has the benefit of having not faced most of the AL hitters. Dean Kremer's a low 4 to high 3 ERA guy who gives you a chance to win each time out. Their bullpen's been shaky but the additions of Seranthony Dominguez and Gregory Soto along with moving Albert Suarez back in will help sure things up. Cionel Perez, and Yennier Cano have been reliable all season. Craig Kimbrel has had his struggles, but he's had more good than bad. Don't love this bullpen for the post-season but it's good enough for the rest of the regular season.

We just don't buy the current hype around the Yankees. The Jazz trade seemed to revitalize the bunch, but his career numbers are clear. He's a league average bat that's going to come back down to earth and he already has. Offensively New York's struggled outside of Judge and Soto this season. They did just get Stanton back but per usual with his injury history, he's struggled since coming back. Gleybar's had a few good days, but he's been terrible all season. Rookie Ben Rice gave them some nice production for a bit, but he's gone cold. Austin Wells looked like a Hero in the cleanup spot, but he's also gone cold. Alex Verdugo's having a terrible season. Just don't see enough offensive production outside of the 2 big names moving forward with the way their teams pitching.

Gerrit Cole has been hit or miss but we trust him to figure it out. Carlos Rodon has also been pitching pretty well but the rest of this bunch is a question mark. Marcus Stroman 6.82 ERA L7, Nestor Cortes 6.25 ERA L7, Luis Gil 6.06 ERA L7. Their bullpen's struggled just as much if not more than Baltimore's as well and they added just 1 reliever at the deadline.Ultimately, we feel the 1 seed is coming out of the east and we're all in on this Orioles offense that isn't even firing on all cylinders yet. Unlike New York's offense they're waiting on proven bats to heat up. Not hoping for above average production from career average hitters. The Head-to-Head meetings in September will be massive.