MLB (1 Pick)
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8:40pm est: (SD) Blake Snell Under 16.5 Outs Recorded -105 (3 Units)
This will fall under the Pitcher Props section of the Dodgers/Padres Game.
Blake Snell has been the best pitcher of 2023 but he still struggles with command. He's got filthy stuff, just struggles to locate it at times. He finished July with a .56 ERA (6 Starts) but went just 5 innings in 4 of those 6. In fact he averages less than 5IP per game on the season. He's also a big strikeout guy, which takes a lot of pitches.
Despite posting the lowest ERA in any month of his career it really wasn't his sharpest. He issued 26 walks (most ever in 1 Month) in just 32 innings of work and had a WHIP of 1.5. He found a way to escape Jam after Jam, thanks in large part to 42 strikeouts.
Snell has started against the Dodgers 13 times since 2020. He's recorded less than 16.5 Outs in 10 of those 13. That's not some coincidence. The Dodgers lead the league in walks per game this year and ranked 2nd in both 2022 and 2021. 60 game season in 2020 but they were still in the Top 10 that year as well. This has been an incredibly disciplined lineup for years now and they'll grind out at bats.
They also aren't some big strikeout team. They're usually sitting around league average which is solid for a team that hits for power as much as they do. The LAD are also red hot at the plate, .302 BA/.393 OBP/.527 SLG over their last 5 games. The .393 OBP ranks 1st during that span.
Snell allowed just 2ER in the Month of July and still managed to only pitch 5 innings in 4 of those 6 starts. In the other two he only went 6. He's allowed a ton of traffic but managed to get away. Regardless of the Dodgers ability to score they'll work him but if they can break through with the way Snell's pitching, this one hits easy.
