MLB (2 Picks)
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+112.5 Units this Year!
6:40pm est: Orioles ML -105 (3 Units)
Dean Kremer starts for BAL and he's coming off a rough outing. He gave up 5 ER to the Dodgers across 4.2 IP. Hurt by a pair of long balls. He had pitched extremely well in his first 2 starts of July though. Allowing 1 ER in each of his previous 2 starts while pitching 7 and 6 innings. He has a history of getting nailed every so often. However, the last 3 times he's allowed more than 3 ER in a start he's fired back. He's allowed 1 ER in 2 and 2 ER in the other of the 3 starts after allowing 3 ER+. He does have a 4.04 Road ERA compared to his 5.43 Home ERA. The PHI offense is also struggling, hitting .204 with a .599 OPS in their last 6 games.
Christopher Sanchez starts for PHI and despite his 0-3 record in 7 starts, he's pitched pretty well. He's posted a 3.91 Home ERA in 5 Home Starts. He has allowed 3 Runs in back to back starts and failed to record an out in the 6th inning. This is just his 12th big league start. He has a career 4.5 ERA in the MLB and a 4.36 down in the Minors. He had a 4.35 ERA at AAA this year. He has the worst BRLS/PA on the Phillies and allows a hard hit ball 42.3 % of the time. His xERA is also .88 points higher than his actual. He's going to falter at some point.
The Orioles are one of the hottest teams in baseball right now while PHI continues to play mediocre ball. BAL is 4-1 in Kremer's last 5 starts while PHI is 1-4 in Sacnhez's L5.
7:05pm est: Nationals RL -1.5 +130 (4 Units)
Rockies are forced into another bullpen day. They had one yesterday and one on Friday when we cashed in on them +195. Their bullpen's recorded over 20 outs in their previous 3 games. And while the top half of their bullpen has pitched well, the bottom half of their pen is terrible. They also just traded their Saves leader in Pierce Johnson and are certainly selling some more before the Deadline next Tuesday. Multiple Bullpen Arms are on the block along with a couple bats.
While they can't outright sit those guys, they're going to try and stay away from them while they front office is actively shopping. Relivers like Brad Hand and Brent Sutter are hot names while Grichuk and CJ Cron are the bats for sale. CJ Cron is out of today's lineup. COL has a lot of outs to get with a very depleted pen.
On top of that the Nationals offense is cooking. Averaging over 5 Runs per game in their last 5 while scoring 5+ in each game of their series sweep vs the Giants. They're hitting .297 with an .809 OPS over the last week. 6th best in baseball. Jake Bird also starts for COL and he has a 9.53 ERA in July. Surrendering runs in 3 of his 6 starts and pitching just 5.2 Innings.
Patrick Corbin starts for WSH and he's been reliable this year. We backed him quite a bit earlier this season and this is another prime spot for him. His ERA is nearly .80 points better at Home. His last two starts were strong. He gave up 3 ER in 5.1IP against the Cubs his last time out but they're red hot. They're averaging just shy of 8 runs per game the last week. The Start before the break he threw 7 innings of 1 run ball against the Rangers.
He gets a very weak Rockies lineup today. Touched on it on Friday with how bad the Rockies have been vs LHP this season but they were without their best RH bats. CJ Cron sure enough homered in the top of the 1st and that was all COL would need. But he along with Kris Bryant are not in today's lineup. They're 25th ranked offense vs LHP is accurate today and to make matters worse their offense ranks 28th on the road. There's only a few Rockies bats with respectable numbers vs LHP today. The rest are just terrible. They're also hitting .190 as a team in their last 5 games.