Major League Players Club MLB (7/19/23)

MLB (1 Pick)

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7:20pm est: D-Backs ML +190 (3 Units)

Ryne Nelson continues to pitch well outside of Chase Field. He has a 2.68 ERA when pitching on the Road and has allowed more than 3 ER in just 1 road start. That came at Coors Field as well. He did make a home start against these Braves earlier this season, allowing 3 ER on 4.2 IP. Compared to his other Home starts, was actually one of his best.

Yesterday's game ended 16-13 but the Braves threw up 9 on Zach Davies, AZ's SP. The next 4 ER came against the bottom D-Backs bullpen arms but their top bullpen arms held ATL scoreless. Those top arms will be available again today if Nelson can provide some length.

Charlie Morton starts for ATL. and he's faced the D-Backs 3 times since joining Braves in 2021. He allowed 3ER against them earlier this year, 4ER in 2022, and 3 ER in 2021. Morton has pitched well as of late but it's been again weak competition. The White Sox and Rays rank 25th and 29th offensively through the Month of July. He's not exactly one for long dominant stretches either. He's 39 years old with a career 3.99 ERA. In 2023 he has a FIP of 3.72 contrary to his 3.2 ERA.

Arizona's bats are due to get and stay hot too. They scored 16 against ATL last night and 5 the game prior. The Braves were also trying to win last night after taking lead after lead and their bullpen allowed 8 ER. There wasn't a single Braves reliever sent in with an ERA above 3.67 yesterday either. Arizona has the #8 Ranked offense in 2023 but they went Cold from the end of June up till the All-Star Break. Had a lot to do with them losing the Lead in the NL West. They have plenty of talented bats that are due for a hot streak. May be starting now. At +190, great value here.