MLB (2 Picks)
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4:05pm est: Pirates ML +125 (3 Units)
Jordan Montgomery had a rough month of May. He went 0-2 with a 6.04 ERA in 5 starts. He had a BA against of .324 and a WHIP of 1.74. He made 1 quality start in the beginning of May against the 28th ranked Tigers offense. Excluding that he has a 6.98 ERA in his last 4 starts and has allowed 38 batters to successfully reach base in 19.1 IP.
Offensively the Pirates are starting to turn it back on. They were the 3rd ranked offense in April but finished May ranked 28th. They scored 7 runs on the Cardinals last night and 9 runs against the Giants the game prior. Going back the last week they’re hitting .275 with an .810 OPS. They’re also better against Lefties. They hit .268 with an OPS of .754 vs LHP compared to .238 and .724 vs RHP.
The Cardinals bullpen has also been atrocious. They rank 17th with a 4.07 ERA but are just 13 for 26 in save opportunities. They had a 4-run lead last night and couldn’t hold onto it. They don’t have a single reliver with an ERA below 3.5 on the active roster.
The young hard throwing right hander Luis Ortiz starts for PIT. He’s making his 5th start of 2023 and he’s been mostly solid. He went 5 innings allowing 2 ER in his 2023 debut at home vs COL. Struggled @ Detroit allowing 3 ER in just 3 innings. Followed that up with a gem at home vs the #1 scoring offense, 2 ER in 7.2 IP vs TEX. Then in his last start allowed 3 ER in 5 IP @ Seattle. He’s been sharp at home and if he can turn in 5 quality innings, that’s all the Pirates need.
The top half of the Pirates bullpen may be the best in baseball. Their closer David Bednar has a 1.23 ERA and is 11 for 12 in SVO. Yohan Ramirez 1.4 ERA in 19.1 IP, Dauri Moreta 1.8 ERA in 25 IP, Colin Holderman 2.08 ERA in 21.2 IP, then Jose Hernandez 2.25 ERA in 24 IP. The best news, all 5 of them are available today.
Offensively the Cardinals are struggling too. Yesterday was the first time they scored more than 3 runs since May 24th. They went 7 straight games. They scored 5 yesterday courtesy of 1 big inning.
Cardinals are 13-17 on the road this year and just 4-6 in their last 10 games. The Pirates have won 3 straight and are 5-0 in their L5 division games.
10:10pm est: D-Backs ML +175 (3 Units)
Even the best pitchers in baseball go through struggles. Strider posted a 4.01 ERA through the Month of May. Quite opposite of the 1.8 ERA he posted in April. He’s averaging just 5.2 IP per game and has pitched just 5 innings in 3 of his 6 May starts. He’s been hurt by the long ball, allowing 5 HR in May after allowing just 1 in April. Part of that’s because of Temperature’s heating up. The D-Backs just smashed 40 Homeruns in May too.
He’s also had some road woes in May. He allowed 4 ER in 5 IP @ NYM. Turned in a nice start @ TOR going 6.2 IP allowing 2 Runs (1 Earned), but then again gave up 4 ER in 5 IP @ TEX. This is also an East Coast team on the West Coast. Unusually late start time for Strider. He made 1 start at AZ last year and couldn’t make it out of the 5th inning. He allowed 5 Runs, (3 ER) in 4.1 IP.
The Braves bullpen has a 4.02 ERA and Jesse Chaves is the only truly reliable arm. He as a 2.08 ERA, everyone else in the Pen is 3.26 or higher.
Ryne Nelson starts for AZ, and he’s been hot and cold. He finished May with a 4.15 ERA over 5 starts. He has a 5.37 ERA on the season but an xERA of 4.64 so there’s been a little tough luck. He’s allowed a combined 3 ER in 3 of his 5 May starts but 9 ER in the other 2. The Giants tagged him for 4 ER on a couple long balls and the Rockies just lit him up for 5 ER. The Rockies also tagged him for 6 ER in Colorado in April, so it appears they just have the kids number.
As strong as the Braves offense has been, even the best bats slump. They’ve plated just 9 runs in their last 4 games. The worst part, 3 of those came against the Oakland A’s and their dead last ranked pitching staff. They actually lost that series. They also do most of their damage against Lefties. They have an absurd .910 OPS vs LHP (2nd) but that falls to .735 vs RHP (12th).
Merrill Kelly also turned in a 7 inning Gem for the D-Backs last night so their bullpen is freshly rested. It’s certainly not a strength of the D-Backs but they have been much better lately. They have a 4.02 ERA on the year and that’s likely the first thing they buy at the Deadline. The guys you want in are available for tonight.
The Diamondbacks are just a good team. There’s only 3 teams with a higher win %. They’ve won 6 straight and are 20-12 at home. They’re 13-3 L16 games vs a Right-handed starter. Atlanta’s just 2-5 in their L7 and while their 19-10 road record looks sexy, they’re 3-7 in their last 10 road games. Some favorable early scheduling certainly helped them out. Atlanta’s also 1-4 L5 trips to Arizona and Arizona’s 7-3 L10 home games vs teams with a Winning Record.
+175 Odds are well off. Great value on the D-Backs.
