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Major League Players Club MLB (6/16/23)

MLB (2 Picks)


7:20pm est: COL/ATL Under 10.5 (3 Units)

This totals a bit inflated. Dinelson Lamet has a 10.38 ERA but he's been on the unlucky side. He has an xERA (Expected ERA) of 4.62 which isn't terrible for somebody regularly pitching at Coors Field. He was respectable in his last start. Allowing 3 Runs (2 Earned) in 5 innings against the Padres at Home. A Padres offense that is currently destroying the baseball.

Lamet ranks in the 89th percentile for spin rate on his fastball. His xBA against his fastball is .222 but the actual BA is .292. His slider has an xBA against of .165 but an actual BA of .298. Coors field plays into some of these discrepancies. Good news is he's not pitching at home tonight. This is also a man with a career ERA of 3.94 as a starter. He's better than he's been.

He also has quality bullpen arms behind him. He only needs to go 4-5 innings. Anything past that and he's pitching very well. Braves dropped 7 runs on Kyle Freeland last night (They smash LHP) but the Rockies bottom half of the bullpen held them to just 1 Run on 3.2 IP.

The Left-Handed Jared Shuster starts for ATL. He has a 4.0 ERA across his last 5 starts and hasn't allowed more than 3 runs during that span. He get an extremely friendly matchup tonight. The Rockies are terrible vs LHP and can't hit on the road. They hit .229 with an OPS of .650 (29th) vs LHP. On the Road they hit .235 with an OPS of .648 (28th).

He's also supported by a very good Atlanta Braves bullpen. After struggling to begin the season they've rounded into form. They currently rank 8th with a 3.66 ERA.

8:10pm est: Reds ML +145 (3 Units)

Cinci has been rolling and their Rookie Lefty Hander takes the Mound. Andrew Abbot has made 2 starts this year and has yet to allow a run. He pitched 6 shutout innings in his debut at home vs the Brewers then followed that up with 5.2 shutout innings in St. Louis. He gets an Astros lineup that's been struggling. They're without Yordan Alverez and worse against Lefties. Touched on this when Corbin started vs HOU on Tuesday and he pitched well, burned by a couple solo HR's. The Reds Bullpen is also one of the best in baseball and they're freshly rested following yesterday's day off.

J.P France is pitching to a 3.54 ERA (7 Starts) during his rookie season. He has struggled at Minute Maid Park however. He has a 5.94 Home ERA compared to a 1.88 Road ERA. The Reds are averaging 5.5 Runs per game through their L9 and have scored 4+ Runs in all but one of those games. They've scored 5+ in 6 of those 9. The Astros bullpen is statistically quite good but they've faltered past couple days. They blew a 3 run lead in the 9th on Wednesday. They also allowed 1 run in the top of the 9th in a 0-0 game yesterday. HOU would tie it up in the bottom of the 9th before the bullpen allowed 3 runs in the top of the 10th. They lost 4-1.

Cinci's won 5 straight games, all on the road. They're also 9-3 their last 12 trips to Houston.

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