MLB (2 Picks)
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7:40pm est: STL/CHC Under 7.5 (3 Units)
Miles Mikolas had a bumpy start to 2023 but he’s been better, pitching to a 3.13 ERA in his last 4 starts. Half of the earned runs he allowed came via the long ball in those 4 starts. The good news, the Cubs offense is struggling. They’re hitting just .231 and slugging .302 through their last 6 games. They’ve hit just 2 homeruns during that span. They played Washington and Miami. The 18th and 19th ranked pitching staffs. Then there’s the ballpark conditions. 51° with 14MPH winds blowing in. No ballpark is affected by Wind more than Wrigley. Tough day to leave the yard.
Marcus Stroman has allowed more than 2 ER just once this season. He’s thrown a shutout in 3 starts, allowed 1 ER in 1, then 2 ER in the other 2. His one poor start came against the Dodgers when they jacked 3 homeruns on a hitter’s day at Wrigley. Those are the only homeruns he’s allowed all year. Again, tough day to leave the yard. The last time he faced STL he pitched 7 shutout innings in 2022. The Cardinals offense hasn’t traveled well either. They have a team OPS of .792 at home (8th) but that drops to .691 on the road (19th).
7:40pm est: Royals ML +115 (3 Units)
Dylan Cease has been on the struggle bus. Going back, 4 ER in 5IP on 98 pitches thrown, 6 ER in 4 IP on 99 pitches, 3 ER in 4 IP on 101 pitches. He’s really laboring, and the White Sox bullpen is awful. They rank 29th with a 6.15 ERA. The Royals bats are Red Hot, hitting .298 with a .946 OPS over the last week. They are the #1 ranked offense during that time period.
Royals start Zach Greinke. He’s practically two different starters at this point in his career. At Kauffman Stadium (Home) he’s phenomenal. Pitching to a 1.91 Home ERA in 2022 and a 2.82 Home ERA so far in 2023. He has his struggles on the road but he’s home today. He’s given up 2ER, 1 ER, 4 ER, and 0ER in his 4 home starts. The 4 ER came against the Braves too, the 2nd best offense in baseball. The Sox offense ranks 19th.
The White Sox actually just scored 17 runs in Cincinnati (Most hitter friendly bark in baseball) yesterday and that should work against them. Greinke’s hard throwing days are long gone, and he’s got a knack for getting aggressive hitters out. Greinke just did it at home against Baltimore. He threw 5 shutout innings on just 44 pitches. He made 2 home starts against the White Sox in 2022, allowing just 2 ER in 12 IP.