MLB (1 Pick)
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7:10pm est: Rockies ML +230 (3 Units)
Antonio Senzatela is making his season debut for the Rockies. He made a pair of Rehab starts at Triple A throwing a total of 147 pitches. He pitched against the same team twice. His first start was good, the 2nd one, not so much. That’s been his Career. He’s very sharp when he’s on but he’s struggled to stay consistent. He made 19 starts before facing season ending surgery in 2022, he allowed 3 ER or less in 14 of them. In 2021 he did that in 19 of 28.
The good news is that he gets a struggling Mets offense. We covered that and took advantage of it yesterday and are back for more today. The Mets had just 3 hits and 1 walk in yesterday’s game. Senzatela is also a ground ball pitcher with a career GO/AO ratio of 1.47. This Mets offense has a GO/AO ratio of 1.06, 6th highest. Even if the Mets get some hits, they play right into his hands as he tries to induce double play balls. Antonio also owns a 2.88 career ERA vs the Mets (5 games) and a 2.7 ERA in 2 starts at Citi Field.
The Rockies bullpen is also in great shape. They get a bad rap and their ERA tends to be inflated by Coors Field, but they have 5 quality relievers. Last year’s star Closer Daniel Bard hasn’t allowed a Run in his brief 2023 campaign. He’s made 1 appearance throwing just 20 pitches in the last 5 days and had the day off yesterday. Brent Suter has a .98 ERA, he’s thrown once in the last 4, also had yesterday off. J. Lawrence has a 1.65 ERA and has thrown twice in the last 6 days, just 30 pitches, and he also had yesterday off. Jake Bird has allowed just 1 ER in his last 14 IP (9 appearances), he’s thrown twice, just 21 pitches and had off yesterday. Brad Hand has a 3.86 ERA too throwing just once in the last 4 days. 20 Pitches against the Brewers yesterday. Senzatela just needs to hold off until he can pass the baton.
The Mets start Kodai Senga. He has a 4.15 ERA in 5 starts and an xERA of 4.91. Scheduling has been kind to the first-year man out of Japan. He made his first two starts of the year against Miami. They rank 20th offensively. They also got off to a tremendously slow start. Scoring more than 3 runs just once in their first 9 games. He allowed 1 ER in both outings. Then the 26th ranked A’s offense tagged him for 4 ER in 4.2 IP. Then he faced a legitimate offense in SF (12th) and they put up 4 ER in 5 innings. His more recent and final of 5 starts came against WSH (28th) and they scored 2 in 5 innings.
See that a lot at times. Whether it be minor leaguers or international talent making their MLB debut. Start off well before the Majors figure them out and what it is they’re trying to do. Getting some good film on them helps. He has a serious command issue. Walking 18 batters in 26 innings of work. He’s walked 4 in each of his last 3 starts.
The Rockies offense is humming too. They’re hitting .323. with a .916 OPS in their last 5 games. Those numbers are a bit inflated by playing at home, but their bats really woke up in their most recent road trip to Cleveland. They took 2 out of 3 @ CLE. The Mets bullpen has also been used a ton this week. They have just 1 guy who’s well rested and it’s because they signed him yesterday.
The Rockies have won 4 straight games. The Mets have lost 3 straight and 9 of their last 11. They have absolutely no business being this large of a favorite tonight. Doesn’t matter to the Books, public money is still pouring in on the Mets. High value play.