MLB
2 Picks
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3:40PM EST: ATL/SEA Under 7.5 (4 Units).
Each of the first 2 games of this series have been low scoring. Good length from each team's starters and flipped end of game roles has each bullpen's best arms ready to go. They both have the day off tomorrow so barring a blowout one way or the other we're going to see the top half of these bullpens regardless. Atlanta's bullpen is 10th with a 3.47 ERA and Seattle's is 4th with a 2.66. 6 of Atlanta's relievers have an ERA of 3 or below and 4 of them are sub-2.4. Only Aaron Bummer (5.23 ERA) has thrown more than 27 pitches in the last 3 days for Atlanta. No Mariners reliever has pitched more than once in the last 3 days and all but 1 of their relievers has an ERA of 2.84 or lower.
Chris Sale starts for Atlanta. He's gone 7 innings in 3 straight starts and going back has allowed 1, 3 and 5 earned runs. He only threw 95 pitches his last time out and 89 the start prior so he should be feeling fresh. Offensively the Mariners are hitting .169 (last) with a .572 OPS (27th) over the last week. Against LHP this season they're hitting .203 (26th) with a .614 OPS (27th). Sale's been one of baseball's premier left handers and has a very unique delivery. Despite pitching in 348 games throughout his career, this current Mariners lineup has just 19 career at bats against him between two players. Mitch Haniger is 0 for 6 and Polanco 4 for 13 with a .718 OPS. Even if Sale isn't sharp the unfamiliarity with his delivery and Mariners overall struggles against Lefties is going to play here.
Emerson Hancock starts for Seattle. He's pitched 6 innings in 3 straight games and going back has allowed 1, 1, and 2 earned runs. He's allowed just 10 combined hits and 3 walks over those last 3 starts. He has a .76 GO/AO ratio and likes to work the top of the zone with his 4-Seam fastball. As such he's susceptible to homeruns. Seattle has a neutral HR park factor and it'll be sub 60° throughout this entire game. Atlanta's lineup has a league worst .540 OPS over the last week. Acuna, Olson, and Riley are all really struggling so far this season and those were the Braves top 3 contributors a season ago. Despite those 3 having an OPS .702 or lower Atlanta ranks 2nd in OPS this season. Everyone outside Ozzie Albies is ice-cold at the moment regardless. Nobody on Atlanta's faced Hancock before either.
7:10PM EST: Mets ML +105 (4 Units). LHP Shota Imanaga was the Cubs prized FA signing from Japan. He's pitched well but has been lucky. He has a .98 ERA compared to a 3.03 xERA. He had a career 3.18 ERA in 8 seasons in Japan. Obviously the MLB has better hitters and the league is going to catch up to him at some point. He's a heavy fly ball pitcher that likes to work vertically. He throws his fastball up and his nasty splitter down. He's allowed a Homerun in back-to-back starts and 5 hits in 3 straight. 2 of his last 3 starts came against Seattle and Miami, two of the worst offenses in baseball. The Mets lineup is strong against Lefties, hitting .258 with a .743 OPS. They rank 8th in Slugging and have a plethora of pop from the right side. There's 10MPH winds blowing out to left to help carry those fly balls a bit further.
RHP Jose Butto starts for the Mets. He has a 2.86 ERA through 4 starts this season. He surrendered 4 to the Cardinals over 5.2 IP in his last start. A HBP and Walk to lead off the 2nd inning followed up by a HR is what cost him. He was sharp the rest of the way and allowed just 3ER in his first 3 starts combined. The Cubs offense is batting .206 with a .567 OPS (28th) over their last 6 games. They're also significantly worse against RHP. They're 2nd in baseball with an .820 OPS vs Lefties but are 19th with a .678 OPS against Righties.
Both teams have their entire bullpen at their disposal and its advantage New York. The Mets bullpen has a 2.85 ERA (7th) compared to the Cubs 4.5 (21st). The Cubs are 10-3 at Home but 8-9 on the road. Another drastic offensive split for them there as their .790 OPS at Home ranks 3rd but their .643 OPS on the road ranks 25th.
