Major League Players Club MLB (4/9/23)

MLB (1 Pick)

7:00pm est: Braves ML -115 (3 Units)

Padres SP Seth Lugo made the switch from Bullpen duty to SP for the Padres. What he was originally drafted for back in 2011. He pitched very well in his first start at home vs Colorado. Allowing just 1 ER (solo HR) in 7 innings. The Rockies line-up isn’t very impressive, especially away from Coors field. He threw 93 pitches though. The most he threw during the spring was only 36. Good chance he’s dealing with some arm fatigue. He’s made 12 starts since he was relegated to bullpen duty in 2018. In the 5 starts following 80+ pitches thrown, he has a 12.86 era.

The Braves are plenty familiar with Lugo too. He spent 7 seasons with the Mets, same division as Atlanta. Mixed bag of results, some Braves have stellar numbers vs Lugo, some not so great. Much different when you’re coming in as a reliever compared to a starter. In relief he faces a lineup once and very rarely twice in one game. As a starter you’re facing the top of that line-up 3 times. He’s not going to be as efficient as he was vs that Colorado lineup with few prior ABs against him.

If Atlanta can tap into the bullpen early, they’re in a good spot. San Diego’s bullpen has been an absolute mess to start the season too. They own a 4.78 era and have blown numerous leads already. Their closer, Josh Hader, is likely unavailable. He’s pitched back-to-back days, tallying 36 pitches. He was never asked to pitch 3 straight days in 2022.

Braves offense is set for some positive regression. Through the first 3 games of this series, they’re 6-26 (.231) with RISP and have left 29 guys on base. Last year they ranked 3rd with RISP and they’re still hitting .265 this season after those struggles. ATL’s slash line vs Lugo in 2022 (33 plate appearances): .281/.324/.531/.855.

Atlanta’s young SP Dylan Dodd pitched well in his MLB debut. He allowed 1 ER in 5 innings of work at STL. Doesn’t get much tougher than that for your first start. That’s a very good Cardinals line-up that excels against Lefties. He pitched well in the spring too, 2.00 era across 15 innings of work. He doesn’t get himself into trouble and pounds the zone. He averaged 1 walk every 4.6 innings in the minors and didn’t issue a free pass in his debut. Park conditions favor the lefty, 10mph winds blowing from left to right. Making it a little bit harder for those RH pull hitters to leave the yard. SD has struggled offensively to start the season, hitting just .229 with an OPS of .734.