MLB (2 Picks)
2:20pm est: Rangers/Cubs Under 7 (3 Units)
Rangers SP Nathan Eovaldi was sharp for most of his opening day start. He ran into some trouble in the 4th and gave up 2 earned runs before recording 3 straight outs. Then Trey Turner tripled on a fly ball that dropped due to the defensive alignment. Turner scored on a groundout. 3 ER in 5 IP. He was sharp through the spring with a 2.7 era. He was elite on the road last year, pitching to a 2.64 era. The 10th best SP road era in the MLB.
Cubs SP Marcus Stroman has been pitching very well. He allowed just 1 earned run in spring and shut out the Brewers in his first start. He gave up just 3 hits while striking out 8 through 6 innings. He’s been loving Wrigley Field. Going back to last season he’s given up just 2 ER in his last 4 starts and 26 IP.
Wrigley field conditions are working in the pitchers favor today. Brisk 40-degree temperatures with the wind blowing in at gusts of 12mph. Neither offense has been very impressive this year either. They both rank in the middle of the pack in 2023. Both teams had the day off yesterday, so their bullpens are locked and loaded. Rangers’ bullpen leads MLB with a .73 era.
8:40pm est: Nationals/Rockies Over 11 (4 Units)
Good matchups for the offense. WSH SP McKenzie Gore had a solid first start but he did walk 4 batters and allowed a few hits. He was pulled in the 6th before getting bailed out by the bullpen. He’s struggled with arm fatigue in back to back starts and this is one of those spots. He threw 93 pitches on opening day. The most he threw in spring was 65. He’s on a regular 5-day rotation, no extra rest. Last year he had 6 starts where he threw more than 90 pitches. His era in the following games was 6.26. The Nationals gave him at least 7 days between starts in all but one of those too.
He also made 2 starts against Colorado last year and got crushed. He gave up 6 earned runs in 2.1 IP at home in start #1, then got blasted for 8 ER in 4 IP at Colorado in start #2. 2 starts; 6.1 IP, 14 hits, 7 walks, 14 ER. Part of that’s because he’s a LH pitcher, who the Rockies do very well against. They were the 4th best team vs LH pitching in 2022 and most of those mashers are still in town. They have a home field like no other, despite ranking 12th in overall offense in 2022 they were the #1 home offense. Similar story in 2021, 12th overall, tied 3rd at home.
On the flip side, Jose Urena starts for Colorado. He hasn’t been a viable starter since 2018. He lasted just 2.1 innings in his first start. Giving up 5 hits, walking 4, and surrendering 4 earned runs. He was just as bad in the spring. Giving up 12 earned runs in 12.1 IP across his last 3 spring starts. He was released by MIL early into the 2022 campaign before Colorado scooped him up at the midway point. He finished with a 6.3 era when pitching at Coors field in 2022.
Both bullpens are a weakness for these squads. This year the Nationals bullpen ranks 18th with a 4.39 era while the Rockies are 27th at 5.73. Both of their high leverage and dependable arms pitched in yesterday’s game too. If the staters get knocked out early there will be some very below average arms on the mound today.
