Major League Players Club MLB 4-5 Units (5/2/25)

MLB

4 Picks (14 Units)

6:10PM EST: Nationals First 5 Innings ML +150 (4 Units).

LP. Mitchell Parker (WSH).

WSH SP Mitchell Parker lost the zone against the Mets in his most recent start and got punished for it. He had a 1.39 ERA through his first 5 starts, completing 6 innings in each. 5 of the 6 ER he allowed against the Mets came in the first frame. He inevitably locked in and went on to complete 5 innings. Everyone has off days and that's what we believe that was. Cinci plated 9 runs against a depleted Cardinals bullpen yesterday but scored just 4 combined runs through the first 3 games of that series. They've also struggled against LHP, batting .222 with a .687 OPS. Parker’s capable of matching the Reds Ace and the Nationals are swinging the bats well. They've also done so against plenty of elite pitching having faced the Phillies and Mets in their last 2 series. Washington has the worst bullpen in baseball and their only 2 reliable arms have thrown 2 of the last 3 days. Cinci's bullpen is plenty deep and fresh. We’re not interested in those later innings here.

6:45PM EST: Diamondbacks ML +130 (3 Units).

LP: M. Kelly (AZ).

Merrill Kelly has a 4.41 ERA but that's heavily inflated from 1 bad start. He's completed 5.1 innings or more allowing 2 ER or less in 5 of 6 starts this season. He's a frontline starter that tends to give his Arizona a chance to win whenever he’s on the Mound. He's 3-1 as a starter and Arizona's 4-2 in his 6 starts this year. He's allowed 3 hits exactly in each of his last 3 starts against the Phillies. The Phillies have a good lineup, but they've scored 3 runs or less in 5 of their last 8 games. PHI SP Jesus Luzardo is throwing as well as anyone, but he's still allowed 2 runs or more in 4 of his 6 starts this year. Plenty of runs came unearned but that's that Philly defense for you. His xERA is nearly a full point higher than his ERA so he's also been a little lucky. Neither bullpen's been great, but Arizona's did just pitch well on the road against the Mets. Arizona just handed the Mets their 2nd and 3rd home losses of the season.

7:05PM EST: Rays ML +215 (3 Units).

LP: R. Pepiot (TB)

TB SP Ryan Pepiot has a respectable 4.24 ERA with 5 of his 6 starts coming at Home. That would usually be beneficial, but the Rays aren't playing at the Trop this season. The roof's undergoing renovations so they're stuck playing at Steinbrenner Field, the Yankees spring training facility. It's an incredibly HR friendly venue and that's how he's been hurt. Yankees stadium is a HR friendly ballpark but only to right field. It's deep in Left and Center. The right-handed Pepiot has reverse splits. Meaning he's better against Lefties than he is Righties. Traditionally pitchers excel against the same arm side. He has a 1.19 WHIP and .220 opponent BA against Lefties compared to 1.62 and .297 vs Righties.

Obviously there's Aaron Judge and he can burn anyone but if you take him and his 10 Homeruns out of the equation the Yankees have 43 homeruns on the year. 32 of those 43 are from Lefties and another 3 are from switch hitters who would bat lefty tonight. Math checks with Lefty pull hitters and the short porch at Yankees stadium. Pepiot's lone road start came at San Diego last week and he allowed 1 ER on 6 IP. He allowed just 3 hits and walked 2 without allowing a HR. Pepiot also has a BA allowed of .194 and wOBA of .283 in 38 career plate appearances against this Yankees roster. Tampa has the 5th best bullpen in baseball and that's after a slow start. They have 2 relievers who haven't allowed an ER in over 2 weeks and 3 others with an ERA below 2 during that span, all of whom are available tonight.

It's a tall order against Max Fried tonight but he's among the most fortunate pitchers in baseball. He has a 1.2 ERA and an xERA of 3.55. That's the 4th largest discrepancy among qualified starters. Good and Bad Luck comes and goes throughout baseball. The Rays have a path to an ugly win if Pepiot can deliver at least 5 strong innings.

7:10PM EST: Twins ML +100 (4 Units).

LP: J. Ryan (MIN) / B. Bello (BOS).

MIN SP Joe Ryan has been lights out for 4 of his 6 starts and pretty bad in the other 2. He allowed 1 ER on 5 IP in his first road start, 0 ER on 7 IP in his 2nd road start, and then 6 ER on 5 IP in his 3rd and most recent road start. He excelled on the road last season, posting a 3.29 ERA in 12 starts. In 64 career plate appearances the current Red Sox roster has a .220 xBA and .275 xwOBA. He has a career 3.38 ERA in 5 starts against Boston with 4 of them being Quality. We like him to be sharp today and the Twins bullpen is 10th in ERA.

BOS SP Brayan Bello has a 3.27 ERA but an xERA of 7.37 through 2 starts. The Guardians hit him hard in his most recent start and had very little to show for it. He allowed 9 hitters to reach base on 5 IP in his first start but allowed just 1 ER. He had a 7.07 ERA in 4 rehab starts with a .316 BA allowed and 1.57 WHIP. He struggled at Fenway last season, posting a 4.81 ERA at Home compared to 4.2 on the Road. The Twins are swinging the bats well, ranking 10th in OPS over the 15 days and 9th over the last week. They're also 4th with a .300 BA this last week. They had 13 hits in yesterday's loss, going 3 for 14 with RISP and leaving 12 guys on base. They tend to do well in that department, ranking 7th in BA with RISP. Bello also has a tendency for shorter starts, averaging 5.1 IP per outing throughout his career. The Red Sox bullpen is 19th in ERA and one of their best is currently on the bereavement list.