Major League Players Club MLB 4-5 Units (4/17/25)

MLB

4 Picks (13 Units).

12:35PM EST: Nationals/Pirates Under 8 (4 Units). WSH SP Trevor Williams has a 7.36 ERA but an xERA of 3.52. His 4.4% BB% and 33.3% Hard-Hit Rate are both spectacular. The results will come if he continues pitching this way and the 28th ranked Pirates offense is the perfect spot for it. PIT SP Andrew Heaney has a 3.0 ERA and an xERA of 2.75. He's allowed 6 runs all year and 4 of them came on a grand slam at Cinci his last time out. That's a hitter’s ballpark. The Nats are 20th in OPS and hitting .217 with a .619 OPS vs LHP. Neither bullpen’s been great, but we should see their better arms follow these starters today.

6:40PM EST: Royals ML +130 (3 Units).

KC SP Michael Lorenzen has a 3.71 ERA and 4.04 xERA through 3 starts. He's allowed 3ER in each of his 2 road starts. He's plenty familiar with Comerica Park though, posting a 3.25 ERA in 14 Games (13 starts). He spent half a season with Detroit in 2023. In 49 career plate appearances vs Lorenzen the Tigers have a .224 xBA and .303 xwOBA. Detroit's offense has also gone cold, batting .189 with a .545 OPS over the last 7 days (6 games).

DET SP Reese Olson has a 6.0 ERA and 4.5 xERA through 3 starts. Some tough luck but he just hasn't been sharp. Even his last couple spring training starts weren't very good. The Royals offense hasn't been great, but they've had success against Olson in the past. In 80 career plate appearances vs Olson the Royals have an xBA of .300, xSLG of 523, and xwOBA of .377.

7:05PM EST: Rays ML -110 (3 Units).

NYY SP Will Warren turned in a decent outing his last time but out he has a 5.14 ERA and 4.97 xERA. He had a 5.09 ERA in Spring Training and a 5.91 ERA in 23 AAA starts last season. He's just not an MLB starter and is only pitching because of injuries. The Rays got blanked by Boston yesterday, but they still lead the league in OPS over the last week and scored at least 4 runs in 5 straight games leading up to that.TB SP Taj Bradley has a 3.71 ERA and a 3.21 xERA. He has frontline ace caliber stuff but struggles with command at times. His opponent BA of .197 and 35% Hard-Hit% speak volumes to his stuff. He went 6 innings in each of his 2 Home Starts, allowing 1 and 2 runs. The current Yankees roster has a .105 BA in 22 career plate appearances against him.

7:10PM EST: Cardinals First 5 Innings ML +105 (3 Units).

STL SP Andre Pallante has a 2.2 ERA and an xERA of 3.8. He tossed 7 shutout innings against the Phillies in his most recent start. The Mets offense has scored 3 runs in back-to-back games and are 14th in OPS over the last week. NYM SP Griffin Canning has a 4.2 ERA and a 5.23 xERA. His 59.1% Hard-Hit Rate is among the bottom 2% in baseball. The Cardinals are 3rd in OPS on the season and 6th in OPS over the last week. Mets have a massive bullpen advantage, and we want nothing to do with those later innings.