Major League Players Club MLB 4-5 Units (4/16/25)

MLB

4 Picks (15 Units).

1:07PM EST: Braves/BlueJays Under 7 (5 Units). More cold miserable weather with heavy winds blowing in from Left in Toronto. There was a big 5 run half inning yesterday but neither offense was too productive, combining for just 14 hits and 5 walks. Spencer Strider is making his 2025 debut and he's one of the best starters in baseball. He made a couple spring training appearances and then 3 minor league starts at AAA. His combined stat line in his final 2 rehab starts: 10.2 IP, 3 Hits, 4 Walks, 21 Strikeouts. He threw 90 pitches in his most recent start. TOR SP Chris Bassitt has a .98 ERA through 3 starts. His xERA is a 3.13 so he's been a bit fortunate but the advanced metrics are still very good. Both bullpens still in great shape after yesterday. Braves bullpen used two bottom half relievers and the Blue Jays top arms haven't pitched more than once the last 3 days.

6:40PM EST: Marlins ML +125 (4 Units).

AZ SP Brandon Pfaadt has a 3.5 ERA with an xERA of 5.87 through 3 starts. His xBA and xSLG are both in the bottom 11% of baseball. In his lone road start of the season he allowed 4 ER on 6 IP. Miami's been swinging the bats well, ranking 3rd in OPS over the last week. They've scored at least 4 runs in 6 straight and 9 of their 11 April games. MIA SP Max Meyer has a 2.0 ERA with an xERA of 3.5 through 3 starts. He's pitched at least 5.2 Innings in every start. Length is important with a thin Marlins bullpen. They have 4 relievers throwing very well and they're all available after a day off Monday and blowout loss yesterday. Arizona's 2nd in OPS on the season but fallen to 9th in April.

7:05PM EST: Red Sox ML +120 (3 Units).

BOS SP Sean Newcomb has a 4.97 ERA with an xERA of 3.44. He's getting some strikeouts and limiting hard contact. He's been barreled up just twice this year. Tampa's 6th in OPS on the season but 18th vs LHP. Against lefties they're hitting .214 with a .659 OPS. Tampa has just 4 career plate appearances against Newcomb as well. TB SP Zack Littell opened the season with a good start against Colorado, but he's allowed 7 and 5 runs in each of his last two starts. He allowed 4 home runs in his most recent start, which came at Home. He also had an 8.1 ERA in 4 Spring Training starts. He just hasn't pitched well and Boston's plenty familiar with him.

7:05PM EST: Royals ML +130 (3 Units).

KC SP Kris Bubic has a .96 ERA with an xERA of 3.02 through 3 starts. He'll have his work cut out for him against a Yankees lineup that leads the league in OPS vs LHP. The Yankees bats have cooled considerably since their red-hot start, ranking 10th in OPS in the Month of April and over the last 7 days. NYY SP Clarke Schmidt is making his 2025 debut. He pitched well in 2 rehab starts but he's not stretched out. If the Yankees rotation wasn't so banged up, he'd continue to get work in the minor leagues, but they need help. He worked up to 61 pitches in his 2nd rehab start. Length has been an issue for him even when fully stretched out. He completed 6 innings in just 2 of his 19 starts last season. That’s so important today because the Yanks bullpen has struggled and they’re with Devin Williams and Luke Weaver. They’ve pitched 2 straight and 3 of the last 4 days. Williams is their closer and Weaver's been the only reliable reliever for them this year. Nobody in the Royals bullpen has thrown more than once in the last 3 days.