MLB
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4:10PM EST: Rockies to win 3-Game Series vs the Rays +165 (2 Units), Rockies Moneyline +145 (2 Units), Rockies Team Total Over 5.5 +100 (3 Units).
The Rockies have one of the best Home Field advantages in Baseball. It's the most hitter friendly ballpark in the Bigs and there's no replicating Denver's thin air. Even the best pitchers go into Colorado and struggle. Positive regression is coming for Colorado's offense and there's no better spot for it than their Home opening series. Their wOBA ranks 23rd but their xWOBA is 13th. They're 1st in Hard Hit %, 3rd in average Exit Velo, and are at 5.9% Brls/PA (would have finished 2023 ranked 6th). They're swinging the bat better than their results suggest and they finally broke through scoring 8 runs on the Cubs in their most recent game. They get a depleted Rays pitching staff that's dealing with 5 injuries to key contributors. Their top 2 remaining starters also pitched the Rays last 2 games. The Rays have a 4.75 team ERA and their bullpens at a 6.15. Tampa Bay's bullpen is going to need to record its fair share of outs in this series. The Rays haven't played in Colorado since 2016 either.
The Rockies pitching staff doesn't inspire much confidence but both Ryan Feltner and Dakota Hudson were solid in their season debuts, and they're set to pitch Games 2 and 3. Today's starter Austin Gomber struggled at Arizona, but he's battled consistency issues. He allowed more than 3ER in back-to-back starts just twice last year (27 starts), once in 2022 (17 starts), and once in 2021 (23 starts). The trends suggest he pitches better today. He also went at least 5 innings allowing 3ER or Less in 16 of his 27 starts last year. The Rockies pitching staff is at least used to pitching at Coors and constructed for this Ballpark. The Baseball will be flying at Coors today with 75° weather and 25 MPH Winds blowing out.
8:05PM EST: HOU/TEX Over 9.5 (3 Units).
HOU RHP Hunter Brown has an xBA of .384 and xSLG of .626 in 61 career PA vs the Texas Roster. TEX SP has xBA of .313 and xSLG of .662 in 35 career PA vs HOU's roster. Hunter Brown labored in his first start pitching just 4 innings on 88 pitches with a 1.5 WHIP. He made 1 start @ TEX last year allowing 3 ER over 4 IP on 10 Hits. The Astros bullpen has really struggled pitching to a 6.0 ERA this season. TEX averaged 5.85 runs per game at Home in 2023 (1st) and have scored 20 through their first 3 Home games this season. TEX LHP Cody Bradford is making just his 10th career big league start. HOU has the top offense in baseball over the last week batting .300 with a .917 OPS. HOU averaged 5.78 runs per game on the road (2nd) last year compared to 4.4 at Home. HOU was also 2nd in OPS vs LHP in 2023 at .809 and are currently at .899 in 2024. Ball will carry today with Weather and the Roof open at Globe Life Field.
