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8:05PM EST: Nationals ML +130 (4 Units)
Mackenzie Gore starts for Washington. He’s pitched to a 3.12 ERA across 5 starts. He hasn't allowed more than 3 runs in any start this year. He's faced some very good lineups too. LAD, HOU, and PHI. His first start of the season came against the Pirates and Pittsburgh's offense was red hot to start the season. His 5th start came against Oakland, and he did what good pitchers do to bad lineups, shutting them out while racking up 11 K's.
The Rangers offense hasn't been nearly as strong as they were a season ago and they've failed to score more than 4 runs in 7 of their last 9 games. They've scored 18 total runs in their last 5 games. They've been much weaker against LHP this year, batting .241 with a .686 OPS (16th) compared to .250 and .728 vs Right. 3 of their 4 hottest hitters at the moment have specifically struggled against LHP and Evan Carter was held out of the lineup because of it. Behind Gore is a quality Nationals bullpen. Only 2 WSH relievers pitched yesterday, nobody has pitched back-to-back days, and everyone has thrown 29 pitches or less over the last 3. Their bullpen boasts a respectable 3.68 ERA, but their bottom bullpen arms have inflated that number. Closer Kyle Finnegan is 9 for 10 in Save opportunities with a 2.19 ERA and got the night off yesterday.
RHP Jon Gray starts for the Rangers. He's really struggled at Globe Life Field for the Rangers. He had a 4.78 ERA in 15 Home starts last year and a 3.71 in 4 starts this year. 3.71 doesn't sound bad but he's completed 5 innings in just 1 of those 4 and didn't pitch and out deeper. He has a .301 opponent BA and 1.76 WHIP at Home. He's escaped jams and the bullpen's bailed him out but that doesn’t last. 3 of Gray's starts this season have come against the 25th, 26th, and 27th ranked offenses with 2 of those 3 coming at Home. He has an xERA of 5.3 compared to his actual 2.92 ERA and his xwOBACON is a .480 (3rd percentile). The Nationals bats are red hot, scoring 11, 12, and 7 in their last 3 games. It came against Miami but they everyone Miami put on the mound. Washington is 16th in OPS on the season but they're 11th vs RHP compared to 20th vs LHP with a near .070-point difference.
