MLB (2 Picks)
6:40pm est: Twins ML -120 (3 Units)
Twins SP Tyler Mahle is poised to have the best MLB season of his career. He spent 6 seasons pitching in the hitter friendly Great American Ballpark. It was a terrible place for him, he’s a fly ball pitcher and only Coors Field averages more HR per game. It’s why he has a career 3.76 era on the road and a 5.0 era at home. Last year he had a 3.83 road era and 2021 (His last fully healthy season) it was 2.3. Offensively the Marlins are really struggling. They weren’t good last year, and they haven’t been good this year. Hitting just .228 through their first 4 games. They’ve scored just 8 runs in 2023. MIA SP Cueto was blasted for 10 hits and 6 runs in 5.2IP his last trip to MIN last year. He’s made 2 spring starts, giving up 11 ER in 3.2 IP (32.4 ERA). He made 1 start in the World Baseball Classic too, allowing 3 ER in 2IP. He’s also effected by the pitch-clock. As he’s gotten older and his stuff’s diminished, he’s been known for his mind games and antics on the mound. He won’t have that luxury any longer. Minnesota’s best bullpen arms are available to back Mahle up too.
6:40pm est: Cubs/Reds Over 9 (3 Units)
Both starting pitchers have really struggled through the spring. Smyly has a 5.65 era, giving up 13 hits and 6 ER in his last two appearances (8.1 IP). BA against Smyly through spring is .365. CIN SP Conner Overton has a 12.19 era, surrendering 14 ER in just 10.1 IP. He has a WHIP of 2.23 and BA against of .408. The Cubs offense has struggled to start the year but MIL has one of the best pitching staffs in the MLB. The Reds have fared better, sliding in at 7th with an OPS of .822. They’re also strong vs LH pitching. Only 1 batter in today’s line-up isn’t better vs LH pitching. OPS vs LH Pitching in 2022: India .709, Steer 1.014, Myers .815, Stephenson .825, Newman .837, Fairchild .828, Maile .701 but BA was .300, Barrero .498, Friedl 1.122. Great American Ballpark is the 2nd most hitter friendly ballpark in the MLB. Only Coors Field stadium elements produce more runs per game. Neither bullpen is very good either, if these starters get chased earlier these line-ups should continue to pour on.
