Major League Players Club MLB (4/29/24)

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6:35PM EST: Yankees ML +110 (5 Units).

Clarke Schmidt hasn't allowed more than 3ER in any of his 5 starts this year. He has a 3.55 ERA on the year and a 3.15 ERA in 4 April Starts. He has respectable Barrel % at 7.5 and Hard-Hit % at 40.3. His K % is good at 26.9 and he generally doesn't walk many batters. He surrendered 8 of his 10 walks in back-to-back starts but has walked just 2 combined in his last two starts. He's allowed 3ER in each of his last 2 starts against BAL and 1 ER the start before that. All of those came in 2023. He's been much sharper this year.

Baltimore's offense has scored 6 and 7 in their 2 most recent games but came against weak starting pitching. A's Starter Ross Stripling was sharp in Game 1 of the 3-Game set vs Baltimore, allowing 2 runs in a 3-2 A's victory. JP Sears struggled and surrendered 7 runs in an A's 0-7 Loss. Then Paul Blackburn came out and threw batting practice surrendering 6 runs over just 4IP in a 7-6 A's Win. Baltimore had 35 outs to work with against a good A's bullpen and failed to score a single run. The Yankees bullpen has been better than Oakland's and their closer Clay Holmes has yet to allow an earned run. Clarke Schmidt has been solid in every start this year. Baltimore's lineup is good regardless, but they've really only done damage against poor starting pitching and even a Triple A lineup is doing that.

Grayson Rodriguez starts for Baltimore. He was pitching great up until his last start, surrendering 7 runs on 11 Hits and 1 walk in 4.1 IP against the Angels. He's struggled with command at times and that's what plagued him last week. His xwOBACON is .449 and Hard-Hit % is at 50. Those rank way down in the 8th and 5th percentiles. His WHIP is at a 1.41 and GO/AO ratio is at .62. His 28.1 K % is good though. He's working long counts and giving up Hard-Hit balls in the air. The Yankees are a terrible match-up for him today. It's 85+ Degrees at Camden Yards with over 50% humidity and light winds blowing out. The ball jumped off the bat yesterday as Oakland and Baltimore combined for 6 Homeruns. Today's conditions are even more hitter friendly.

The Bronx Bombers came alive during their 3 Game set in Milwaukee, blasting 10 Homeruns across 3 games. Aaron Judge got off to a slow start this year, but he has a 1.266 OPS over NY's last 6 games. Anthony Rizzo has a 1.522, Juan Soto's at 1.023, Verdugo's at .922, and Volpe's at .849. Even both Yankees catchers are raking with a 1.064 and .988 OPS over that span. Gleyber Torres has 5 hits in his last 2 games and Oswaldo Cabrera has successfully reached base 6 times in their last 3. Giancarlo Stanton's the only "Cold" batter hitting .250 the past week but even he tallied 8 total bases and a walk in the Milwaukee series. This is as close to firing on all cylinders as you can get. New York has a very patient lineup that works the really works the count. They lead the league in Walks, Walks Per Game, and Walk %. They're going to make Rodriguez work tonight regardless of whether he's effective or not. Especially with the current state of this Orioles bullpen.

The O's bullpen ranks 18th with a 4.02 ERA but they're on the struggle bus. BAL closer Craig Kimbrell left last night's game with an injury after blowing a save for the 2nd consecutive night. He threw 10 consecutive scoreless outings prior to that. Yennier Cano has been their one reliable arm and he's likely to close games now, but he's thrown 46 pitches in the last 5 days and 34 in the last 3. Besides Cano there's only Dillon Tate in the bullpen with an ERA below a 4.91 over the last 15 days and he's pitched in back-to-back days and is unlikely to go tonight. 7:07PM EST: Royals ML +140 (4 Units) Kansas City calls up Jonathan Bowlan to make his 2024 MLB Debut. He did make a couple MLB appearances towards the end of last season, so he won't have those first start nerves. He closed out last season with a combined 3.63 ERA over his last 6 appearances (5 starts), two of which came at the MLB level. He has a 2.57 ERA in 4 Triple A starts (21 IP) with 21 strikeouts and just 5 walks. This Blue Jays lineup is ice-cold, scoring 3 or less in 6 straight and 7 of 8 games. They're hitting .195 with a league worst .564 OPS over the last week. The Royals have a quality bullpen behind Bowlan, and it got the chance to reload in yesterday's loss. They used 2 relivers that threw a combined 22 pitches. No Royals reliever has pitched more than once in the last 4 days too so it's fresh and rested.

Toronto starts Yariel Rodriguez. He was a prized Japanese FA signing and he was sharp in his first two outings before laboring against these Royals in his most recent. He was a reliever in Japan and hasn't pitched more than 4 innings in any of his 3 starts. Arm fatigue likely played a part in his recent struggles against the Royals. He's still on regular rest but threw 69 pitches his last time out compared to 83 the start prior. The Royals scored 3 runs on 6 hits and 2 walks across 4 innings against him. They're at least familiar with his delivery even in the likelihood he's sharper today. The KC offense hasn't been great of late, but they did score 8 and 5 runs in the first two games of their Detroit series. Cy Young favorite Tarik Skubal shut them down over 7 innings allowing just 1 run before passing off to an elite Tigers bullpen in the series finale yesterday. Rodriguez isn't stretched out to pitch deep and the Blue Jays bullpen ranks 23rd with a 4.75 ERA. They've also used their set-up and Closer in back-to-back days. Highly unlikely either once pitches today, especially closer Jordan Romano who just came back from the IL 13 days ago after dealing with right elbow inflammation.