MLB
2 Picks.
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1:10PM EST: Tigers -125 (2 Units).
Detroit's playing well, going 4-2 on their most recent road trip and averaging 4.6 runs per game over their last 9. They've scored at least 4 in 8 of those 9 and 3 in the outlier. 4 Runs isn't a ton but with the top bullpen in baseball (2.06 ERA) it's a winning formula. Royals starter Seth Lugo had been pitching well before he allowed 4 runs over 5.1 IP against the Orioles his last time out. He has a 2.03 ERA but an xERA of 5.15. His 11.1 K% ranks in the 3rd percentile.
Reese Olson takes the mound for the Tigers. He closed out his rookie season with a 1.51 ERA over his final 6 starts. He has a 3.8 ERA this season but 6 of the 9 earned runs he allowed came in 1 bad start at Pittsburgh. He's allowed 2ER or less in 9 of his last 10 major league starts. His final start of 2023 came against these Royals. He allowed 1ER across 5.2 innings of work. The Royals offense has also been struggling of late, failing to score more than 3 runs in 5 straight games. All of those games were played at Home too. They're 10th in OPS at Home but 26th on the Road.
Kansas City also played yesterday before hoping on their flight to Detroit. Travel factor working against them whereas the Tigers got the day off. That reloads the best bullpen in baseball that was already well rested with no guys throwing more than twice over the last 5 days.
7:20PM EST: Guardians ML +220 (4 Units).
Logan Allen starts for Cleveland. He has a 5.06 ERA this season but an xERA of 4.25. He's been burned by the long ball and things won't get any easier against this Braves lineup today but there's 10MPH winds blowing in to provide a little help. He has a 2.31 ERA in 2 road starts and posted a 3.64 Road ERA across 13 starts in 2023. The Braves don't have any career at bats against Allen which helps him the first time through the order. The Braves offense hasn't exactly been clicking recently either, batting .256 with a .732 OPS averaging 4.2 runs per game over their last 5 games. They won their most recent game against Miami 3-2 on a walk off in the 10th. They're solid numbers but they have an .823 OPS on the season. Ozzie Albies was just reinstated from the IL and was productive offensively, but he hasn't taken a live at bat in 11 days. Allen's capable of turning in a decent start and handing things off to the 2nd best bullpen in baseball. He allowed 2ER or less in 15 of his 24 starts as a rookie last year and allowed 3 Runs or less in 3 of 5 starts this year.
Chris Sale starts for Atlanta and he hasn't put together an Elite season since 2018. He has a 4.38 ERA through 4 starts this year and a 4.3 ERA in 20 starts last year. Sale allowed 2 Runs over 5.1IP in each of his first 2 starts. He's pitched 7 innings in each of his last 2 allowing 5 and 3 runs to the Marlins and Rangers. The Marlins offense ranks 29th in OPS this year and the Rangers bats have been below average since the 2nd week of April. MIA and TEX also rank 30th and 25th in OPS against Left-Handed Pitching. The Guardians rank 3rd with an .826 OPS vs LHP and rank 5th with a .773 OPS over the last week. Cleveland's scored 5 or more runs in 8 of their last 11 games and 3 of their last 4 series have come against the Red Sox and Yankees, the top 2 teams in ERA this season. Jose Ramirez caught fire at the end of their most recent series and has a career .296 BA in 27 at bats against Sale.
The Guardians are 18-7 and lead the league in run differential for a reason. Allen's capable of keeping a not so hot Braves lineup in check before passing things off to their bullpen. Cleveland's offense is good enough to hit anyone and especially this current version of Chris Sale. At +220 there's tremendous Value to be had. Public is hammering Atlanta and driving this line further in our favor. Make sure you shop around for odds as this one's all over the place book to book.
