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3:10PM EST: Rockies ML +125 (4 Units).
The Padres starting pitcher isn't MLB ready. He was acquired from NYY as part of the Juan Soto deal and is their 12th ranked prospect. He made his first start of the year against Toronto last Saturday. He gave up 4 runs (1 ER) on 5 Hits, 1 Walk, and 1 HBP across 5IP. His ERA is a 1.8 with 3 of those 4 runs coming unearned but he had an xERA of 5.9 in that start. He gave up 9 Hard-Hit balls (52.9%) and recorded just 3 strikeouts. He has command issues and it's a big reason he had to throw 97 pitches just to get through 5 innings. He had a 5.91 ERA in spring training and walked 8 across 10.2 IP. He had a 4.59 ERA in AAA last year with a 4.48 BB/9. Before being called up this season he made 3 AAA starts and posted a 7.94 ERA. He uses a heavy dose of 4-Seam fastballs and that doesn't play at Coors Field. It's the most effected pitch type by Denver's thin Air. On average 4-Seamers loses nearly 3 inches of horizontal arm side run and over 2.5 inches of Rise. They're just straighter and easier fastballs to hit. Vasquez has an average Velo below 95MPH so he's not blowing it by guys regardless. He's never pitched at Coors field. It can get ugly in a hurry there, especially for guys who struggle to locate normally.
Dakota Hudson starts for the Rockies. He struggled in his most recent start, allowing 4 runs across 4 innings. The start prior he surrendered 5 Runs at Toronto. He got blitzed for all 5 runs in the first and then shut them down the rest of the way. Take away a couple infield singles early, and that game could have gone very differently. His first two starts of the season were both good. He's pitched well for the overwhelming majority of his time on the mound this year. His Hard-Hit % is down at 37 and Barrel % at 6. He doesn't need to be great, he just needs to keep them in it and he's done a solid job of that all year. As a sinker baller and ground ball pitcher he's also due for some better luck. The Rockies Bullpen has allowed just 2 runs against San Diego through 3 games this series and their top 3 relievers haven't allowed an earned run over the last 2 weeks. All 3 of them got the night off yesterday and the Rockies have a day off tomorrow. They can combine for 4 innings of work today if need be. This Padres offense has averaged just 3 runs per game over their last 7 as well.
