MLB
2 Picks.
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4:07PM EST: BAL/LAA Over 9.5 (4 Units).
Dean Kremer starts for BAL, and he's been squared up a bunch. His Hard-Hit % is solid at 37.5% but his Barrel % is the 6th worst in baseball at 13.9%. His xSLG is .593 (7th worst) and he's allowed 5 Homeruns through 4 starts this year. Salvy Perez also had a 382-foot flyout that would have been a Homerun in 24 of 30 MLB ballparks against Kremer in his most recent start. He's made 2 Home starts, and 2 Road starts at Kansas City and Pittsburgh this year. Since 2022 when Camden Yards raised and moved their LF Wall, they rank 20th in HR factor with a score of 90 (Average is 100), Kauffman Stadium's 24th (87), and PNC park is 27th (82). He's also had colder temperatures on his side early. Angel Stadium ranks 4th (117) and there's decent temps with 10+ MPH winds blowing out today. Kremer has a 4.91 ERA this season but a 6.01 xERA.
Tyler Anderson starts for the Angels, and he has a 1.42 ERA through 4 starts but an xERA of 4.10. His Barrel % is also high at 10.7. That would have tied for 10th worst in 2023 and the worst mark last year was 12.7% just for reference. He's had some fortunate scheduling thus far. He opened the year against the Marlins 29th ranked offense, then faced the 24th ranked TB offense. Then he went into Boston (15th) and surrendered 3ER over 4.1 IP. His final and most recent outing was against the Reds who have really struggled after their hot start. This Orioles lineup ranks 2nd in OPS this year and 3rd over the last week. Their BA and OBP is also higher vs LHP compared to RHP. Anderson had a really good year with the Dodgers in 2022 but that was the only season outside his shortened rookie season in 2016 that he finished the year with an ERA below 4.37. He had a 5.43 ERA for the Angels last year. The Orioles offense has scored 4 Runs in each of the first 2 games of this series despite going a combined 2 for 16 with RISP. That's going to give way eventually and this Orioles offense hasn't scored 4 or less in 3 straight games yet this year.
The bullpens aren't good either, ranking 18th and 22nd with 4.08 and 4.58 ERA's. Neither starter provided length yesterday and the O's saw all the Angels best relivers yesterday. 6:45PM EST: LAD/WSH Over 9.5 (4 Units). Some tough luck on the Over in the game between these two last night. There were 25 Hard-Hit Balls with 15 of them resulting in outs. There were 14 combined walks, 21 batters left on base, and 3 outs recorded on the basepaths. A ton of quality at bats and good contact last night that didn't result in runs. That's how baseball works sometimes. More often than not those games bust open, and we like the quality at bats to continue today.
These starters went head-to-head in their most recent start on April 17th. The Dodgers Landon Knack made his MLB debut allowing 2 runs on 4 hits and a walk over 5IP but had a Hard-Hit rate of 50% and just 4 strikeouts. Irvin blanked the Dodgers over 6 innings on 4 Hits and a Walk, but he isn't some stud. He had a 4.61 ERA last year and a 3.13 ERA this year but a 4.25 xERA. The Dodgers lineup was really struggling at the time. They just turned it back on scoring 10 runs a couple games back and their lineup looked good again yesterday albeit scoring just 4. It's not easy to navigate a lineup for the 2nd time at any point in the season, let alone in back-to-back starts, and both starters have to do it today.
Neither bullpen is great and both teams used their high-leverage guys last night as it was a 1 run game through 7 innings. The Dodgers needed 4 Relivers to get 13 outs and the Nationals used 5 relievers to get 11. Some added familiarity for these lineups when the bullpen's get used.
