MLB
2 Picks.
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6:35PM EST: Royals ML +145 (3 Units).
KC starts the 25-year-old Alec Marsh. He made his MLB debut in 2023 after posting a career 2.16 ERA at AAA. He struggled with consistency last season, but most young pitchers do. He's an ascending talent that pitched to a 3.57 ERA in Spring. Tough matchup against BAL but the O's offense exploded on the Angels in their first two games of the season. They scored just 1 run in their series finale loss vs LAA and stole the game from KC last night courtesy of a couple infield singles. Baltimore's lineup is good, but they aren't on the Braves or Dodgers level just yet. The Royals bullpen hasn't exactly come through for them yet this year but it's an entirely revamped room from 2023 with a good bit of talent.
Baltimore's starting Lefty Cole Irvin. The Royals were solid against LHP last year and that was with Salvador Perez having a down season. Perez is off to a great start, but KC also added some quality hitting vs LHP in Garrett Hampson and Hunter Renfroe via FA. Irvin posted a 4.81 ERA as a starter in 2023 and a 6.23 ERA in 5 spring appearances. He threw 2 clean innings in February to open spring training but struggled since. In his 4 March appearances; 7.04 ERA, .339 BA, 2.09 WHIP. He allowed 19 hits and 15 free passes in 15.1 IP. KC's offense had 15 hard hit balls and a .348 xBA vs MIN on Sunday and 10 Hard Hit balls with a .247 xBA vs BAL last night. If Irvin's struggles continue the Royals offense can cash in.
7:40PM EST: Rockies ML +165 (3 Units).
Another cold overcast at Wrigley with strong 20 MPH winds blowing from Left to Right. The Cubs beat COL 5-0 yesterday but 3 of those runs were unearned courtesy of a little league Homerun because an Outfielder didn't get his glove down. Chicago's offense has had 1 strong day this year when they scored 9 against Texas. They scored 2 and 3 runs in their other 2 games. The Rockies start LHP Kyle Freeland who got blitzed in the 3rd inning of his debut against AZ. He’s a ground ball pitcher that relies heavily on location. When he’s off it gets ugly as he doesn’t possess truly elite stuff. Freeland allowed 3ER or less in 18 of his 29 2023 starts and pitched to a 2.37 ERA in Spring. Weather really helps Freeland here as it’ll be a tough day for Right-Handed hitters to leave the park. He has much stronger splits vs LHB compared to RHB which is normal for Left-Handed Pitchers.
Javier Assad starts for the Cubs. He's made 41 career appearances over the last 2 years with just 18 starts. He was used primarily as long relief in 2023. In 5 spring appearances (3 Starts) and 12.2 IP he allowed 13 runs on 17 hits, 5 walks, and 1 HBP. He didn't allow a HR but allowed a .309 BA and had a 1.74 WHIP. Colorado's Power does come from the left side of the plate. Assad's a RHP and the wind also helps pull hitting lefties. The Rockies offense hasn't produced much but they're among the unluckiest in baseball at the moment hitting well below their xBA. Even in yesterday's loss they recorded 11 Hard Hit Balls to the Cubs 12. Assad averages just 5 IP as a starter and the Cubs bullpen has struggled to start the year, going 0-2 in Save Opportunities.
