MLB (1 Pick)
1:15pm est: ARI/STL Over 10 (4 Units)
The Madbum’s best days are very clearly behind him. He’s good for about a 5.0 ERA since 2020 and he has a 7.9 ERA to start 2023. He’s given up 5 ER in 2 of his 3 starts this season. His one decent start came at home vs the Dodgers, allowing 2 ER in 4.2 IP. He gave up 5 hits and walked 6 in that game though, Dodgers didn’t capitalize. His xERA is at 8.5, his Brls/PA Is at 10%, and he ranks in the bottom 10% in expected BA, OBP, & SLG. Despite a career of dominance, he still has a 5.46 ERA against the Cardinals in 15 starts. In his last 3 starts vs STL, 14.1 IP and 12ER. This Cardinals team smashes LHP too, they’re hitting .300 with a .864 OPS and they were also the #1 offense vs LHP in 2022. They’ve struggled with RISP this year, but they’re bound to break out of that soon. This is the #7 ranked offense and that falls to #21 with RISP.
STL SP Jake Wofford is just as bad, if not worse. He has a 5.65 ERA but an xERA of 7.89. He struggled in his first two starts, allowing 9ER in 8IP. He did just pitch 5.1 scoreless innings against the Pirates, but he still allowed 9 guys to reach base. He came up a bit lucky because PIT absolutely laced the ball. In fact, everyone does vs Wofford. His Hard Hit % allowed of 59.6% is the 3rd worst mark in the MLB amongst Pitchers that have faced at least 25 batters. His average Exit Velo of 94.2 ranks in the bottom 2%, and like Bumgarner, he’s in the bottom 10% of expected BA, OBP, and SLG.
Both bullpens just got taxed pretty good. Neither SP pitched in the 5th inning last night and 2 of the 4 best relievers for the Diamondbacks will be outright unavailable for this game.