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9:45PM EST: Diamondbacks ML +135 (3 Units).
Arizona Starter Ryne Nelson has a career 4.91 ERA. He made 29 of his 35 career MLB appearances in 2023. He's two different pitchers depending on where he's pitching. When pitching at Home at Chase Field, he doesn't belong in the MLB, posting a 7.02 ERA in 17 games (16 starts). He did just pitch 6 innings of 1 run ball at Home his last time out. However, on the road he has a career 3.32 ERA in 18 games (17 starts). That isn't just good, it's elite. A 3.32 ERA would have ranked 10th among all qualifying pitchers in 2023. He has a 3.44 ERA in 3 career starts vs SF and a 1.98 ERA in 2 career starts @ Oracle Park. His lone road start this season came against Atlanta, the best offense in baseball. He surrendered 3 runs over 5IP on 5 hits without issuing a walk. He got stung by a couple long balls. The Giants rank 20th in At Bats per Homerun and there's below average temps and wind at Oracle Park. It's also the 2nd least HR Friendly park in MLB.
SF starter Logan Webb has done a good job limiting the damage this season. He's given up 28 hits and 6 free passes over 23.2 innings (1.39 WHIP) but boasts a respectable 3.8 ERA. His xERA is 5.2 which is a significant gap. He's a ground ball pitcher that has the sinker to get him out of jams though. Regardless he's allowing a few too many hits and baserunners. He's allowing an opponent BA of .298 (.328 xBA) which is a career worst. He has a combined opponent BA a hair above .240 over the last 3 seasons. His numbers are reminiscent to his first two seasons in the league when he had an ERA above 5. Arizona's offense likes to steal bases. They had the 2nd most steals in baseball last year and rank 10th on this young season. Runners have stolen 23 bags with an 85% SB success rate against Webb dating back to last year, two of the worst marks in baseball. Arizona was a perfect 6-6 against him last season too. The Diamondbacks will be aggressive in this department to help keep them out of double play situations. Having to police that negatively affects the pitcher as well.
Arizona holds the edge in the bullpen department. They have a 4.08 bullpen ERA compared to SF's 5.05. More important is who's fresh and available. Arizona's high leverage arms got the night off yesterday in a loss to Chicago while the Giants used theirs yesterday and were the entire series against Miami. Their Closer Camilo Doval has thrown 40 pitches over the last 3 days, which isn't ideal this early in the year. He's also made just 5 appearances, so he's not exactly stretched out great.
