MLB (2 PickS)
6:40pm est: SF/MIA Under 7.5 (2 Units)
SF SP Logan Webb had a tough start to the season, giving up 4 ER in back-to-back starts. He allowed just 1 ER in his most recent start vs the Dodgers. He does have an xERA of 3.94 compared to his 4.76 ERA. He just inked a five-year $90 Million contract extension on Friday. He pitched to a 3.03 era in 2021 and a 2.9 era in 2022. Maybe the contract talks distracted him, maybe not. Either way he’s going to get back to being an ACE and he showed those signs in his last start. The Marlins offense ranks 23rd this year and are dead last in runs scored with 49. They ground into double plays 1.13 times per game, worst in MLB. Logan Webb is a sinker ball pitcher with a career GO/AO ratio of 2.05. That’s 2.38 this year too. Plays right into Webb’s hands.
MIA SP Jesus Luzardo is rounding into the frontline starter he’s expected to be. He has a 1.93 ERA across 18.2 IP with 20K’s to go with it. He’s made two of his 3 starts at home, giving up just 1 ER combined. This Giants lineup has been terrible vs LH pitching in 2023 too. They’re hitting just .201 and rank dead last with a .541 OPS. There aren’t many Giants with previous at bats vs Luzardo either. The Marlins bullpen has also been lights out with a sub 1.0 ERA in the last week.
7:40pm est: Marcus Semien Over 1.5 Hits +180 (2 Units)
Semien is hitting .300 in his last 7 games. He’s had multiple hits in 4 of those 7 games and he has stellar numbers vs KC SP Jordan Lyles. He’s 10 for 20 with 3 walks in 23 career plate appearances. More recently he’s 8 for his last 14 and he just went 2 for 4 against him on April 11th. Would have been 3 for 4 but Kyle Isbel made a phenomenal diving catch in center field. Lyles has allowed 16 hits in his last 2 starts. Jacob deGrom also takes the mound for Texas today. Odds are the Royals are trailing when Lyles is taken out of the game and replaced by the lesser arms in the Royals pen. Good value on this prop tonight.
