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Major League Players Club MLB (4/15/24)


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6:40PM EST: Tigers ML -120 (3 Units)

The Rangers have called up Michael Lorenzen to start today. He missed spring training due to injury and has made 3 starts at AAA so far. In those 3 starts and 11.1 innings pitched he's allowed 8 runs on 12 Hits, 9 walks, and 1 HBP. His most recent spring start saw him surrender 4 runs on 6 hits and 5 walks over 4.2 IP. He's not pitching well and is really struggling with command. Lorenzen was a long-time reliever before moving back to a starter’s role the last 2 seasons. He has a career 4.41 ERA as a starter and at 32 years old his best days are likely behind him. The Tigers offense isn't great but they're better than minor leaguers and some of their promising young bats are starting to swing it well. If Lorenzen's pitching like he has been the Tigers offense will score some runs on him.

Reese Olson takes the bump for Detroit and it's the tale of 2 starts with him. He 3 hit shutout the Mets over 5.2 IP in his season debut before surrendering 6 runs at Pittsburgh his last time out. He's somewhere in between in reality but he's one of the Tigers’ promising young arms. He was a rookie last year and once he settled in, he was lights out, pitching to a 1.51 ERA over his last 6 starts of the season. He posted a 1.64 ERA in March of spring training before this season began too. We like him to rebound tonight in his 2024 Home Debut and he just needs to be good enough to pass the baton with the game intact. This Tigers bullpen is the best in baseball with a 1.86 ERA. The Rangers bullpen on the other hand ranks 23rd. Once the starters come out it's advantage Detroit.

6:50PM EST: LAA/TB Under 8.5 (3 Units).

Patrick Sandoval has a 6.57 ERA but a 4.08 xERA. He recorded just 5 outs and got blasted for 5 Runs (3 earned) in his first start, but he's been solid over his last two, allowing 2 and 3 earned runs in 5.2 and 5 innings pitched. His Hard-Hit rate is down at 31.6% and that's despite getting shelled in his first start. He posted a 2.54 road ERA in 2022 and a 3.81 road ERA in 2023. He's been a very good starter for the Angels dating back to 2021. The Rays offense ranks 20th in OPS on the year and have an OPS of .677 vs LHP this season.

Zach Eflin has a 6.35 ERA but a 4.08 xERA. He gave up 6 ER over 5.2 IP on 6 hits in his first start, threw a 1 run gem against Texas in start number 2, and just gave up 5 runs to these Angels last week in his most recent start. Eflin had a 3.5 ERA across 31 starts for the Rays in 2023 and a 3.3 ERA at Home. He's a sinker baller and doesn't bring a ton of Velo. When pitchers like Eflin struggle with command it tends to get ugly as they can't get by on stuff alone. We like him to be sharper today and that should mess with the Angels eyes a bit. They didn't see his best version last week and if he comes out sharp today the Angels eyes will register one thing but be getting another.

Both of these guys are much better pitchers than their ERAs suggest and both of these lineups are in the bottom half of baseball and not producing much lately. Even if just 1 of these guys lock back in this Under should be in great shape.


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