Major League Players Club MLB (4/15/23)

MLB (3 Picks)

1:05pm est: MIN/NYY Under 8.5 (3 Units)

Touched on why Tyler Mahle was poised for success in 2023 in his first start. CLICK HERE to view. He gave up just 1 ER in his first start but surrendered 4 in his most recent against HOU. He did pitch 6 innings though. His numbers should be better. His xERA is 2.24, Brls/PA % is a perfect 0, sweet spot % just 27.6, average launch angle is 1.7 (ground balls), and his average exit Velo is only 88.8 mph. He has an xBA of .213 yet batters are hitting .310. The other positive, only 2 Yankees have prior at bats vs Mahle. Rizzo’s hitting .222 in 27 at bats and DJ LeMahieu went 1 for 3 back in 2018. The Yankees bats have also cooled off, hitting just .233 with a .704 OPS in their last 7 games.

Yankees Domingo German is also due for a solid start. He was a quality starter for the Yankees in 2022. Pitching to a 3.69 era across 14 starts. He has elite stuff, it’s just a matter of control for him. His Brls/PA is at 5.7 which is an average mark but guys are struggling to make solid contact. He’s allowed just 5 hard hit balls this year and his average exit velo is at 83.8%. He ranks in the top 8% in both statistical categories. Historically he rarely has 2 back-to-back poor outings, let alone 3. The Twins have scored 4 or less in 5 of their last 6 games. The once exception being that Twins 1st inning eruption on Brito. But after he was pulled the Twins offense went pretty quiet.

These two also feature two of the best bullpens in The Show. Ranking 3rd and 4th respectively. That brief summer weather is also gone. High of 70 today, potential showers, light in blowing winds. Conditions aren’t as hitter friendly as they’ve been the past week.

2:10pm est: Orioles Team Total Over 4.5 (4 Units)

This Orioles lineup is hard to hold down. They’ve put up runs on just about everybody they’ve faced. Michael Kopek has been downright terrible to start 2023. He finished spring training with a 7.11 era and that’s spilled over into the regular season. He was blasted for 8ER and 5 HRs in his opening start against SF. Then it looks like he figured it out against the Pirates, 6IP, just 1 ER. The Pirates still laced the ball though. They recorded 9 Hard Hit balls but only 2 of them went for hits. He also walked 3. His xERA is up at 12.79. His Brls/PA is at 22.9%. Astronomically bad and the worst in the MLB amongst qualified starters. He’s also allowing a hard-hit ball 56.3% of the time. The White Sox’s bullpen is atrocious too. Clevinger avoided damage again last night just for the Orioles to throw up 6 on their bullpen. CWS bullpen has a 7.71 era, easily last in the Bigs.

3:07pm est: Rays Team Total Over 4.5. (3 Units)

Losing last night relieves some pressure for Tampa. No longer chasing history. TOR SP Kikuchi has been a pretty awful signing for Toronto. 5.25 era as a starter in 2022 before being relegated to bullpen duty and he’s off to a rough start in 2023. He pitched “well” against the worst offense in baseball to start the season but got smacked around by the Angels in his 2nd. Giving up 6 ER in just 4.1 IP. Batters are slugging .632 against the Lefty through 2 starts. The Rays have the #1 slugging offense at a .563 mark. That also jumps to .580 vs LHP. Kikuchi’s Brls/PA is at 10%, hard hit balls 53.5%, and his average exit Velo is 92.6. The Rays still had 8 hits last night and 13 Hard Hit balls despite scoring just 3 Runs. TOR’s SP Jose Berrios was sharp last night. Tampa’s still swinging the bats well.