MLB
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3:07PM EST: Rockies ML +160 (3 Units).
We like the Rockies chances again today. They continue to take quality at bats and produce on offense. Didn't matter who the Blue Jays had on the mound yesterday in route to their 12-4 win. They get their first cracks at Yariel Rodriguez, who's making his MLB debut. He was a reliever over in Japan and posted a 1.15 ERA in his final season there in 2022. He didn't pitch last season prepping for MLB Free Agency. He's made 2 minor league starts and was dominant. Allowing just 1 hit and striking out 10 batters over 6.1 innings. He's just not a true starter and isn't stretched out for it. As a high strikeout guy his pitch count gets a bit inflated as it is. He also walked 2 and hit 1 bater in his most recent start. He had a 3.9 BB/9 during his time in Japan too. Only 5 qualifying MLB pitchers had a BB/9 above 4 a season ago. Even is he's lights out he's still unlikely to pitch deep into this game. The Blue Jays bullpen is nothing special and they're missing 2 of their best relief arms due to injury, closer included.
Dakota Hudson is starting for Colorado. He has a 2.38 ERA through 2 starts (11.1 IP) and that could be even better if not for some tough luck on weak contact against the Rays his last time out. He's a heavy sinker baller that's at his best when he's producing ground balls. Toronto's offensive struggles continued yesterday, and they've grounded into the 3rd most double plays so far this season. It's a plus matchup for Hudson and 3 of Toronto's top 4 bats have never seen him before.
4:05PM EST: MIL/BAL Over 8 (2 Units)
MIL SP DL Hall has a 4.82 ERA but a .350 opponent BA and 1.93 WHIP. His first start was against an ice-cold Mets offense to start the year and his 2nd came against a Mariners offense that's 29th in OPS and 28th in Runs Per Game. The Orioles offense is deep and they're hitting .289 with a .846 OPS with RISP. If Hall keeps letting guys on base the O's will cash in.
Dean Kramer's on the mound for Baltimore. He's been solid through 2 starts but has an xERA of 4.69 so he's been on the luckier side. His biggest issue has been the long ball. He gave up 27 last year and that's despite making 19 of his 32 starts at Home. Camden Yards used to be HR friendly until they pushed that Left Field wall back and made it a mini–Green Monster. He surrendered 2 Homeruns in his season debut at Home as well. The Brew Crew currently lead the MLB in At Bats per Homerun. There are 15-25 MPH winds blowing out to Right Center today and decent temps to help carry the fly balls.
8:10PM EST: STL/AZ Over 10 (3 Units). STL SP Kyle Gibson has a 6.23 ERA and 8.63 xERA through 2 starts. His xSLG of .656 is the 10th worst mark in baseball. He's given up 2 Homeruns in each of his first 2 starts and allowed 7 earned runs in his most recent. Roofs Open at Chase field with near 90° weather and 12MPH winds blowing out. The ball is going to carry today.
Ryne Nelson starts for Arizona, and he can't pitch at Home. He has an 8.22 ERA through 2 starts this year. He gave up 3 Runs over 5IP @ Atlanta his last time out and 5 Runs over 2.2 IP at Home vs NYY in his first start. Nelson has a 7.49 ERA at Chase Field in 16 appearances. He had an 8.25 ERA at Home in 13 games/12 Starts last year. He made 1 start against STL last year, at Home, and gave up 5 runs on 8 hits and 3 walks.
