MLB
3 Picks
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6:40PM EST: MIN/DET Under 7 (4 Units).
MIN SP Pablo Lopez is one of the better pitchers in baseball. He has a 2.84 ERA after his first 2 starts with a .217 opponent BA and .87 WHIP. He's made 2 career starts against the Tigers and both of them in Detroit. They came last season, and he allowed a combined 3 ER in 13 IP. He has a .165 xBA and .199 xwOBA in 65 career plate appearances against this current Tigers team. The Tigers rank 26th in OPS so far this season and have scored a combined 15 runs while hitting .229 with a .642 OPS over their last 5 games.
Tigers SP Tarik Skubal has the stuff to push for a Cy Young if he can remain healthy. He had a 3.52 ERA in 21 starts in 2022 and a 2.8 in 15 starts last year. He has a 2.92 ERA after 2 starts this year but an xERA of 1.7 and opponent BA of .159. He was stung by a couple long balls in his most recent start. He hasn't pitched against MIN since 2022 but he's pitched 12 consecutive shutout innings against them in his last two. He also has a career 3.13 ERA when pitching at Comerica Park. The Twins have the 2nd lowest scoring offense in the Bigs averaging just 2.9 runs per game.
Both of these bullpens got reloaded from Thursday's game being postponed too. The Twins bullpen ranks 2nd with a 1.35 ERA and the Tigers 3rd with a 1.47 ERA.
7:07PM EST: Rockies ML +210 (3 Units).
Colorado's early season struggles stem from absolutely terrible pitching. Offensively they're 15th in OPS while Toronto's down at 23rd. Ryan Feltner is starting for Colorado, and he's pitched well to start the season. He has a 3.27 ERA (2.66 xERA), .179 opponent BA, and 1.0 WHIP. He dominated the Rays in his last start, allowing just 1 Run on 2 hits and 2 walks while striking out 10 over 6 innings. Being in the NL he's never pitched against the Blue Jays before. The Blue Jays roster has just 11 total Plate appearances against Feltner and have a .111 Batting Average. Unfamiliarity will always benefit the pitcher.
Kevin Gausman starts for Toronto and that's usually bad news for opposing teams, but he's been awful and a near 2MPH Velo Drop is the reason why. He got solid results in his season debut against TB recording just 13 outs but was incredibly lucky as the Rays went 1-5 on HH balls. He got blasted for 6 runs over 1.1 IP against the Yankees his last time out. He has a 17.68 xERA (3rd worst), 18.5% Brls/PA (3rd worst), 52.9 Hard-Hit %, .347 xBA (17th worst), .787 xSLG (3rd worst), and .554 xwOBA (3rd worst). Having pitched for SF a couple season's the Rockies roster has 75 career plate appearances against Gausman too and have a solid .265 BA. Gausman's far from elite and even a Triple A lineup would hit him around if he continues to pitch this way. He's averaged nearly 190 innings pitched in each of the last 3 seasons, is in his 12th season, and 33 years old. It's possible that's all catching up to him and we'll monitor this moving forward. Plenty of elite pitchers have shown the ability to adjust to Velo drops later in their career but it's usually not pretty as first.
10:10PM EST: Padres ML +170 (3 Units).
Michael King starts for the Padres. He wasn't great in his first two starts but a minor mechanical adjustment returned him to form in start number 3. He threw 7 shutout innings allowing just 4 hits and walking 1 at San Francisco. He had a 2.75 ERA last year and a 2.29 in 2022. When he's on he's one of the best. The Dodgers lineup has also been human lately, hitting .240 with a .691 OPS over the last week (5 Games). King's more than capable of handling this Dodgers lineup even on their best day. The top 4 SD bullpen arms have all allowed just 1 run with at least 6 innings pitched this season. They're also fresh from the day off yesterday.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto will start for the Dodgers. He got blasted by these Padres for 5 runs recording just 3 outs in his MLB debut during the Korea series. He hasn't allowed a run over his last 2 starts and 10 innings pitched though. Bit more MLB tape on Yamamoto now and there's a level of familiarity having faced him before. Padres also rank 6th in OPS over the last week. They've scored 9 and 10 runs in their most recent 3-Game set as well.
