MLB
2 Picks.
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12:20PM EST: NYM/ATL Over 9.5 (2 Units)
NYM Starter Jose Quintana has been lucky, pitching to a 2.61 ERA despite a 6.12 xERA. His xWOBA is at .382, he's allowing a Hard-hit ball 45.5% of the time, and a barrel % of 12.1 which is truly awful. Small sample but those are all a career worst, as are his K% and BB%. He's a 35-Year-Old whose best days are very clearly behind him. These numbers are similar to his 2021 season (6.43 ERA). Atlanta once again has the top offense in baseball with an .880 OPS. Over the last week they're at .870 so they continue to hit. Oddly enough they have struggled against Left-Handed Pitching this season and that's the reason this is only a 2 Unit Play. That is going to give way eventually and this is a solid spot for it. They've scored 13 runs combined and at least 4 in each of their last 3 games against Quintana dating back to 2022. They led the league across the board vs LHP last season, and all those tops bats are still in this lineup.
ATL called up Allan Winans to make today's start. He's pitched and started in just 6 MLB games in his career, all in 2023. He posted a 5.29 ERA with a .287 opponent BA and 1.39 WHIP. 2 of those starts actually came against the Mets with a combined stat line; 11.1 IP, 7 Runs, 13 Hits, 1 HBP, and 3 walks. The Mets offense got off to a slow start but they're hitting .269 with a .758 OPS over the last week, good for 6th in baseball. They scored 8 runs in the first game of this series and 5 in the second.
2:20PM EST: Royals ML +120 (4 Units).
Houston's just 4-9 this season while KC is 8-4 and playing at Home. The Astros start Hunter Brown and he's struggling early. He has a 6.43 ERA and has pitched just 7 innings across 2 starts. His opponent BA is at .364 and his WHIP 2.57. His command issues are driving up his pitch count and forcing early exits. He needed 88 pitches to complete 4 innings in his debut against the Yankees and 80 complete 3 against Texas. He made 1 start against the Royals last year on September 24th and got blasted for 6 runs on 6 hits, 4 Homeruns, and 1 walk. The KC offense has been solid all year, ranking 10th in OPS. Going back, they've scored 11, 4, and 5 runs and they're also on a 6-game winning streak.
Brady Singer starts for the Royals and he's off to an incredible start. In 2 starts he's pitched 13.1 innings allowing just 5 total hits and 1 Run. It has come against two struggling offenses but the former first rounders flashed this potential before. He had a 3.23 ERA across 27 games back in 2022 before struggling in 2023. He had a 2.76 ERA at Home in 2022 and even with his struggles posted a 4.45 ERA at Home in 2023. The newfound success can be contributed to his newly added 4-Seam Fastball. He was 90% sinker slider throughout his career while mixing in an occasional changeup. He would work horizontally and down but the 4-Seam allows him to work Vertically. It's changing eye levels and it's worked tremendously so far. His GO/AO ratio is at 7.33 right now which is just absurd. Even if he lets some traffic on the basepaths he's always a ground ball away from escaping. With a .53 WHIP he hasn't let many guys on anyway. KC's bullpen is in great shape too with the day off Monday and the blowout yesterday.
