MLB
2 Picks.
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6:40PM EST: Brewers ML +115 (3 Units).
Veteran Wade Miley makes his season debut for MIL. He posted a 3.14 ERA in 23 starts for the Brewers last year. He has a career 2.86 ERA in 14 games vs CIN and a 3.48 ERA in 24 games at Great American Ballpark. He shut out the Reds over 6 innings in his lone start against them last year. He has a stellar .176 wOBA in 33 career PA against the Reds Roster.
Hunter Greene starts for the Reds. He pitched well in his first couple starts at Home, but the command issues are still there, issuing 7 free passes in 10.2 innings of work. He's faced the Mets and Nationals so far, two struggling offenses. Milwaukee has the 2nd highest OPS in baseball this season. Greene has a career 8.0 ERA vs MIL and a .472 wOBA in 25 career PA vs the current Brewers roster. He had a 5.13 ERA at Home in 2023 and a 4.7 ERA at Home in 2022. He has better road splits because he's a fly ball pitcher. He has a career GO/AO ratio of .56 and is at .38 this season. Great American Ballpark is the most Homerun friendly park in the Show. He allowed 24 Homeruns in 19 career Home starts prior to this season. The Brewers have hit 9 homeruns in their last 5 games and lead the league in slugging over the last week.
7:40PM EST: HOU/KC Over 9.5 (4 Units).
Houston's top pitching prospect Spencer Arrighetti is making his MLB Debut. He had a 4.64 ERA in 15 games at AAA in 2023 and a 2.16 ERA in 2 games this year. He allowed 7 hits and 7 walks over 8.1 IP though, good for a 1.68 WHIP. Command has been his biggest issue, and the strike zones only get tighter with hitters controlling it even better up in the Bigs. Add in the fact it's first career start coming on the road against a solid Royals offense, and we expect him to struggle. Backing him up is a taxed Astros bullpen with a 4.95 ERA and league worst 6 losses.
Seth Lugo starts for the Royals. He's allowed just 1 run through his first two starts against the Twins and White Sox, the two lowest scoring offenses in the league. He allowed 8 Hits and walked 2 in his most recent start against Chicago. He's been on the lucky side with an xERA of 4.04 despite an actual ERA of .71 this year. He gets an Astros offense that's been hitting well. They scored 10 runs on 11 Hits 2 days ago and racked up 14 Hits last night. Lugo also has allowed a BA of .423 and a wOBA of .489 in 30 career PA against the Astros current roster.
