MLB
4 Picks.
6:40PM EST: Rockies First 5 Innings ML +145 (3 Units).
Rookie Bradley Blalock has pitched very well for most of his innings on the road. He made a homecoming start @ ATL his last time out, allowing 4 runs in the first inning after retiring the first 2 batters. He allowed just 1 hit and no runs the following 4 innings. Some early jitters pitching in front of an army of friends and family. In his 2 other road starts he went into Arizona and allowed 3 ER on 5.2 IP (1ER F5), and went into the Bronx to face the Yankees, allowing 2 ER on 5.2 IP. Brutal road schedule to open his career but he gets a better matchup today against the 25th ranked offense that's hitting just .224 in September.
DET SP Keider Montero has allowed 4 runs or more in the F5 innings in 8 of his 14 games and 3 runs in 10. Colorado's on game number 7 of their road trip as well so those bats are better adjusted to life outside Coors. They've also won 3 of their last 4 games and are playing good baseball.
6:40PM EST: Phillies -1.5 +125 (2 Units).
TB SP Taj Bradley has allowed 4 runs or more in 6 of his last 7 starts and has an 8.92 ERA over that span. Philly leads the league in BA and OPS in the Month of September. PHI SP Ranger Suarez is set to make his 4th start since coming off the IL. He tossed 5 scoreless in Miami his last time out. He has yet to pitch past the 5th inning in any start since coming off the IL and this feels like the perfect spot for a dominant outing. His pitch count’s in a good spot and he’s facing a Rays offense that has a .610 OPS this Month. They've also scored 2 runs or less in 3 of their last 4 games. Philly had struggled for quite a bit but they're starting to fire on all cylinders, winning 12 of their last 16 games.
7:05PM EST: Royals F5 Innings ML +115 (3 Units).
KC SP Seth Lugo has a 3.05 ERA in 29 starts, a career year for him. He's been a bit better outside Kauffman stadium, posting a 2.88 ERA in his 14 road starts. He's also allowed 2 Runs or less in 11 of those 14 road starts. He has his work cut out for him facing a powerful Yankees lineups. Lugo ranks 7th in HR/9 and NY leads the league in GIDP while Lugo's T-5th in forcing them. The Yankees threw up 7 runs on a bad Royals bullpen last night but have scored just 7 runs combined through the First 5 innings of their last 4 games.
NYY SP Marcus Stroman is among the luckiest pitchers in baseball, sporing an ERA .9 points lower than expected. He has a Hard-Hit rate allowed of 39.4% and his 17% K Rate ranks in the bottom 10% of baseball. He has a 4.86 ERA at Yankees stadium and just gave up 5 runs on 9 hits and 1 walk across 3.2 IP @ Texas his last time out. In 8 starts since the All-Star Break he has a 5.45 ERA, .331 opponent BA, and 1.68 WHIP. He simply isn't a very good pitcher.
8:10PM EST: A's ML +160 (2 Units).
We've backed Osvaldo Bido plenty of late and he continues to perform. He has a 2.23 ERA in his last 7 games and Oakland's won each of his last 5 starts. He came on in relief his last time out, tossing 2 scoreless innings. His return to the rotation came back on July 23rd against Houston, allowing 1 run on 5 IP. That's his only career start against Houston. The A's bullpen ERA has been inflated a bit as they start working in some younger guys, but they possess more than a few elite arms. They had yesterday off, and their stud closer Mason Miller hasn't pitched since Friday. Considering they're playing their current division leader, we trust there's more of an emphasis on winning than there may usually be this late in the season.
HOU SP Spencer Arrighetti followed up a stellar Month of August with an absolute Dud. He allowed 9 runs (3 earned) on 5 hits and 3 walks recording just 2 outs @ CIN his last time out. May be a sign of things to come as he really struggled earlier this year and is currently at a career high in innings pitched. Either way he's making his 4th start against Oakland this year and each one was worse than the last. Going back, he's allowed 4, 3, and 2 runs to the A's.