MLB
4 Picks.
6:50PM: Rays ML +120 (3 Units).
BAL SP Zach Eflin faces the team that just traded him a couple weeks ago. He was also with the Rays all of 2023, so they'll be plenty familiar with what he brings to the mound. Offensively TB is 17th in OPS since the break and averaging 4.2 runs per game. Those aren't stellar numbers but it's enough. Their added familiarity with Eflin and an O's bullpen that has been just terrible should lead to some Rays runs.
Either way TB has the arms to shut this O's offense down. Starter Zach Littell has a 3.0 ERA at Home. He's allowed more than 3ER in just 1 of his 11 Home starts and it came back in April. He's allowed 2ER or less in 7 of them. He's faced Baltimore twice this season and recorded a quality start both times. He's backed by a Rays bullpen that's been on Fire. Over the last 30 days there's just 1 reliever with an ERA above 2.57 in that bullpen. Over the last 15 days every reliever is at 2.57 or lower.
Tampa Bay's 10-8 since the break and Baltimore's 10-10. Despite selling at the Deadline the Rays are a couple games over .500 and just 5 games back from a Wild Card spot. They're far from giving up on the season, especially against a divisional opponent.
7:07PM EST: Blue Jays -1.5 +140 (2 Units).
OAK SP Mitch Spence has pitched well, but he struggles on the road. He tossed a quality start @ LAA in his most recent road start on July 27th, but the Angels ranked 29th in OPS in July. Going back from there he gave up 6ER over 3.2 IP @ PHI, 6 ER over 5.1 IP @ LAA, and 4ER over 6IP @ TB. The Rookie did face Toronto in the beginning of June, so he won’t have the unfamiliarity advantage. It's a Blue Jays offense that continues to produce and a big reason they just took 2 of 3 against Baltimore. They're 13th in OPS since the Break averaging 4.63 runs per game.
TOR SP Jose Berrios has a 2.99 ERA in 11 Home Starts this season, allowing just 2ER or less in 7 of them. He labored at NY against a hot Yankees offense in his most recent start but tossed 7 innings of 1 run ball at Home against the Rangers the start prior. This Oakland offense has also come back down to earth after a red-hot Month of July. They've scored 3 or less in 4 of their last 5 and just 11 runs total during that span. 3 of those games came against the White Sox and they didn't start Garrett Crochet in any.
The Blue Jays bullpen only has a few good options, and they won't come out unless they're winning this game and get a good start from Berrios. It's the reason for taking the value on the Run Line instead of a heavy Moneyline price. Trust Toronto's offense to do enough if they can shut down a struggling A's offense.
8:40PM EST: Rockies ML +140 (4 Units).
ATL SP Grant Holmes is a reliever, but he's been thrust into a starting spot the past couple weeks. His first start went well but his 2nd and only other saw him allow 3 runs on 7 hits and 2 walks over 4.2 IP to the Marlins at Home. The Rookie’s now being asked to go into Colorado and pitch at Coors for the first time in his career. Behind Holmes is a Braves bullpen that has been hammered of late. Atlanta's allowed 7 or more runs in 4 straight games (all at Home) and 41 total over that span. They've also lost 5 straight games. The Rockies offense leaves much to be desired on the road, but they have a .764 OPS at Home which is the 8th best in baseball. Kris Bryant just came back from injury and is hitting .471 while slugging .588 in the Month of August.
Rookie Tanner Gordon will start for Colorado. He has a 6.75 ERA through 4 starts but that doesn't tell you the whole story. He allowed 5 runs over 6.1IP at Home in his first start against the Royals. 4 runs came in 1 inning after a homerun followed 3 singles. He pitched well for the majority of that game. He struggled on the road in his next couple starts but just dominated a hot Padres lineup his last time out. He allowed 1 run on 1 hit and 1 walk across 6 innings in San Diego. That wasn't a coincidence, but because of his pitch usage. Opponents are hitting .083 against his Sinker and he threw 42 of his season's 60 against the Padres. It's the best pitch for Coors Field and he's plenty familiar with the elevation in Denver. the Rockies AAA team plays at an elevation just 150FT lower. Atlanta's 18th in OPS since the break averaging less than 3.8 runs per game. They've scored a combined 24 runs in 7 August games and that's with the benefit of bad Milwaukee relievers coming in during blowouts.
9:40PM EST: DBacks ML +120 (3 Units).
Arizona's been one of the best teams in baseball for well over a Month. Zach Wheeler's as tough as they come but he did give up 7 runs to the Yankees prior to his most recent 8 inning shutout @ Seattle. He faced Arizona at the end of June, but he also made 2 starts and 1 relief appearance against them in the NLCS last year. There's familiarity, enough to make him work and get into a depleted Phillies bullpen. All 5 of their high leverage relievers have thrown twice over the last 2 days and a pair of them back-to-back days. Arizona saw 4 of them last night, Kerkering, Hoffman, Alverado, and closer Carlos Estevez. They scored 3 runs on 5 hits and 4 walks against them. The Diamondbacks were 1st in OPS in July at .852, they're 2nd since the break at .873, and are 3rd in August at .884.
Ryne Nelson starts for Arizona. He had a 2.41 ERA in 6 July Games before allowing 4 ER over 5IP in his first and only August start @ PIT. He's been great at Chase Field after struggling in the beginning of the season. 4 of his L5 Home starts have been absolute gems. 7 shutout innings vs WSH, 3 ER over 7 IP vs TOR, 1 ER over 6 IP vs CWS, and 2 ER over 7.2 IP vs SF. Arizona's bullpen is in phenomenal shape behind him. Long reliever Slade Cecconi threw 3 of the 3.1 innings of relief last night. Dylan Floro's the only DBacks reliever to throw back-to-back nights.
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