MLB
4 Picks.
7:07PM EST: BAL/TOR VOID
BAL SP Grayson Rodriguez has a 4.42 ERA on the road compared to a 3.32 ERA at Home. Going back his last 5 starts he's allowed 3, 0, 2, and 6 runs in the first 5 innings. His most recent start coming against these Blue Jays. In 67 Career plate appearances this Toronto roster's hitting .311 with a .409 wOBA vs Rodriguez. Despite selling at the Deadline Toronto kept most of their offensive production and are averaging over 4.5 runs per game since the break.
TOR SP Chris Bassitt's ERA is .5 points higher at Home and he just posted a 7.01 ERA in 5 July Starts. His most recent start came against Baltimore, allowing 5 runs on 9 hits and 1 walk across 4 IP. In 76 career plate appearances this Baltimore roster's hitting .400 with a .454 wOBA against Bassitt. Bassitt's also allowed 3 or more runs in the First 5 innings in 5 straight starts. We're all in on this O's offense catching fire after scoring 9 and 7 in their 2 previous games. They also scored 31 combined runs in the 4 game set against TOR last week.
With both teams having a day off yesterday, all relievers are available. Toronto doesn't have many good options but they're due to get some work. With both starters making back-to-back starts against one another, we like early runs. 8:05PM EST: HOU/TEX Under 8.5 (2 Units).
HOU SP Framber Valdez is one of baseball's best and he has yet to face his division rival Rangers this season. He tossed 7 innings of 1 run ball during his last trip to Texas against a World Series winning lineup. TEX SP Tyler Mahle makes his 2024 debut after a long recovery from Tommy John. All but 9 of his career starts came for Cincinnati. He has a 3.73 career Road ERA. He's a fly ball pitcher and Cinci's home ballpark is one of the worst venues for that. He's made 6 rehab starts, working up to 74 pitches in his last. He held opponents to .177 BA and .83 WHIP. He's been rehabbed the right way, and we like him to come on strong against an Astros offense barely averaging 3.5 runs per game over the last Month and a Half.
8:05PM EST: MIN/CHC Under 6 (2 Units).
Yes, this totals extremely low and 25+ MPH winds blowing in is a big reason why. No ballparks effected by the Wind more than Wrigley Field is. Even the game’s best sluggers would struggle to hit one out in these conditions. We were bullish on MIN SP Pablo Lopez for the 2nd half, and he's delivered, posting a 2.25 ERA through 3 starts, never allowing more than 2ER. CHC SP Shota Imanaga is a fly ball pitcher who gives up his runs via the Homer but that's going to be extremely difficult to do tonight. He's allowed 2ER or less in 14 of his 20 starts and Minnesota's never faced him before. There's a reason Vegas is letting 95% of the Action and Money funnel in on this Over. They've also dropped it half a run to make the Over even more enticing.
8:40PM EST: Rockies ML +130 (4 Units) NYM SP Luis Severino has labored quite a bit of late, allowing 6 or more in 3 of his last 8 and 4 or more in half of them. He got blasted for 6 runs on just 3IP his last time out. He's been oft injured following his 2018 campaign. He threw 12 innings in 2019, missed 2020, 6 IP in 2021, 102 IP in 2022, 89.1 IP in 2023. He's currently at 123.2 IP and the arm fatigue is noticeable. Since July his BA allowed and walk rate are both way up. Now he goes into the hitter friendly Coors Field where he's never pitched before. He has a 4.42 road ERA as it is and that's after tossing 6 shutout innings against a terrible Marlins lineup in Miami his most recent road trip. Colorado spent the last 2 weeks on the road and their offense produced well outside of the SD series. They took quality at bats and took the first game of that series because of it. Colorado always produces at Home, especially after long absences.
COL SP Kyle Freeland has a 5.64 ERA on the season but a 2.91 ERA over his last 7 since he came back from the IL. He's allowed 2ER or less in 6 of those 7 with the exception being a back-to-back @ SF against division rivals. He has a 1.88 ERA in 4 Home starts this year as well. The Mets offense really hasn’t swung it too well of late. They have a .655 OPS over the last week and that's despite a 3-Game series against the Angels and their 27th ranked team ERA.
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