Major League Players Club MLB 1-5 Units (8/4/24)

MLB

3 Picks.

1:35PM EST: TOR/NYY First 5 Innings Under 5 (3 Units).

We backed TOR SP Yariel Rodriguez his last time out and it wasn't his day. He walked 4 and hit another batter before exiting in the 1st inning. He had allowed just 5 combined runs in his 4 previous July starts going into that. He threw just 43 pitches his last time out and is working on 5 full days rest. He'll be fresh and we like him to rebound against a Yankees lineup that's never seen him before.

NYY SP Gerrit Cole was scratched from his last start due to overall fatigue. Turns out he was sick and didn't feel ready to go. In his 12th year the 2023 Cy Young winner knows how to keep his arm right on a mini extended break and that rest should do him some good. He returns to face a Toronto lineup he’s absolutely dominated the last couple years. Since 2023 he's faced them 5 times, allowing just 2 runs across 33.2 innings of work. Only 1 of those 2 runs came in the first 5 innings too.

1:40PM EST: BAL/CLE Under 8 (2 Units).

Each of the first 3 games of this 4-game set has gone over but we like it to settle down. BAL SP Corbin Burnes is once again in the Cy Young conversation and has pitched at least 6 innings in 17 straight starts. Baltimore's bullpen has been shaky but the few guys that are throwing well are available and all that's needed from them. CLE SP Gavin Williams had a 3.29 ERA last year and a 3.72 ERA through 6 starts this year. He struggled in his first start back after a lengthy injury recovery but has a 2.52 ERA over his last 5. He’s backed by the best bullpen in baseball and their top arms are available.

4:10PM EST: Padres -1.5 +100 (3 Units). COL SP Cal Quantrill has been great at Home but struggled on the Road of late, which is ironic since he calls Coors Field Home. Going back, he's allowed 7 ER across 3.2 IP @LAA, 5ER across 2IP @ CIN, and 5ER across 5.1IP @ CWS. The Reds offense has been decent and it's a tough venue, but the Angels and White Sox are the two worst offenses in baseball since the end of June. The Padres offense has been quiet in the first 2 games of this series, but they showed life at the end of yesterday's game. They couldn't touch starter COL Tanner Gordon, but they laced 7 Hard-Hit balls across just 2 innings on the Rockies bullpen. Expecting a weaker starting performance from Cal but they should get into a weaker Rockies bullpen earlier regardless. Cal's completed 6 innings just once in his last 6 road starts.

SD sends out Knuckleballer Scott Waldron. He allowed 5 runs over 4IP against the Dodgers his most recent start He fell victim to some tough luck his last time out and being a contact pitcher opens you up for that. All 5 runs came in the first inning and the "big swings" came on a dribbler double down the line with a .180 xBA and then a 3 Run Homerun off the foul pool that would have left just 3 of 30 ballparks and had an xBA of .030. He shut things down the rest of the way and has pitched incredibly for SD since May 11th. He won't need to face any COL batter more than twice and he may get pulled earlier than that. This Padres bullpen is loaded, nobody has pitched more than once in the last 3 days, and San Diego is off tomorrow.