MLB
6 Picks.
1:05PM EST: (TOR) Jose Berrios Under 17.5 Outs (1 Unit).
Berrios has a 4.96 Career ERA vs the Yankees, a 4.77 ERA against them since joining Toronto, and a 5.65 ERA in 7 career starts at Yankees stadium. He's gone under this prop in 5 of those 7 starts. He has a 5.82 ERA over his last 7 starts and a 4.99 ERA in 11 road starts this season. He's gone under this prop in 3 of his last 4 road starts as well. New York's offense is red hot, and this Toronto bullpen is in great shape. Their top relievers came in and shut NY down last night across 4.2 innings and they're all still fresh. Winning isn't Toronto's only goal after selling at the deadline but, it will be against a division rival. 6:40PM EST: Diamondbacks ML +105 (3 Units).
Jordan Montgomery has been a mess for Arizona this season. He signed late, missed spring training, and got hurt. He's made 2 starts since returning from the IL, one good, one bad. He's made 6 road starts this year, allowing 2 ER or less in 4 of them and 3ER in another. He's only 31 years old and going to find his groove. He was Texas's best starter last season and a big reason they won a World Series. The Pirates rank 22nd in OPS since the All-Star Break and are 18th in OPS vs LHP this season. Jordan Montgomery has allowed a BA of just .200 in 70 career plate appearances against this Pirates roster.
PIT SP Mitch Keller has a 3.3 ERA and has been great all season long. He actually just went into Arizona in his most recent start and only allowed 2 runs in 7 innings. This DBacks offense has just been on fire. They lead the league in OPS since July, are 2nd since the All-Star Break, and 1st over the last week. They've put up 5 runs in all but one of their last 9 games. It's not easy making back-to-back starts against any team, let alone one that's red hot. The Pirates bullpen has also surrendered 12 runs to Arizona in 4 games dating back to last week’s series. PIT is 1-3 in those 4 games and their bullpen's responsible for all 3 losses.
7:05PM EST: Red Sox ML -110 (3 Units).
BOS SP Tanner Houck has just allowed more than 3 runs in back-to-back starts for the first time this season. Coming out of the break he gave up 4 runs over 6IP @ Colorado and then 4 runs over 6IP at Home against the Yankees. It was his first career start at Coors Field and all thing considered that's a solid start. The Yankees have given him some trouble this year, but it was really just some tough luck in his last outing.
The 3 earned runs (1 was unearned) all came in the first inning and on just 1 hard-hit ball. Verdugo hit a double off the Monster which would have customarily been a flyout, Judge hit a 67.2MPH dribbler off the end of a bat for a single, and Wells a 77MPH blooper down the right field line for a ground rule double at the pesky pole. Then Gleyber hammered a single on a sinker down the middle to drive in Judge and Wells. He allowed just 1 hit over the next 5 innings.
The Rangers are 25th in OPS since the All-Star Break and have scored 3 or less in 4 of their last 6 games. Cody Bradford will start for Texas, and he was roughed up in his return from the IL, allowing 5 runs across 2IP in a relief appearance against the Cardinals. He also fell victim to some tough luck and the infield playing in didn't help him out. Regardless he threw 46 pitches just 4 days ago. He made just 3 rehab starts, throwing a high of 34 pitches in his final. He's making his 12th big league start on short rest and against the top offense in baseball since the break. The Rangers bullpen ranks 27th in ERA and has allowed 4 or more in 3 straight.
7:10PM EST: Twins -1.5 -115 (3 Units).
CWS SP Garrett Crochet had a 4.85 ERA in 4 July Starts and didn't pitch past the 4th inning in either. He was a reliever prior to becoming a starter this year and the arm fatigue is adding up. Since July his K/9 is down, pitches per plate appearance is up, BB/9 is Up, and BA allowed also up. He's not as sharp and there's no reason to push him if you're Chicago. You're not making the playoffs and he's either a valuable trade asset in the off-season or an important part of your 2025 team. He's made 2 starts against Minnesota this year, coming back in April, he allowed a combined 7ER across 9IP on 9 Hits, 2 HRs, 3 Walks, and 1 HBP. Minnesota is 7th in OPS vs LHP this year and 10th in OPS since the Break. Whenever Crochet is pulled there's bad relievers coming in.
MIN SP Bailey Ober has a 1.86 ERA over his last 7 starts and a 3.18 ERA at Home. His Home ERA inflated by 1 bad start, he's allowed 2ER or less in all but 1 Home Start. Twins’ bullpen is in great shape after a day off Thursday and a 10-2 Blowout Win over Chicago last night.
8:40PM EST: Padres -1.5 +100 (3 Units).
COL Rookie SP Tanner Gordan has allowed 5, 6, and 4 runs through his first 3 starts. He's allowed an opponent BA of .373 and 1.76 WHIP. San Diego's offense got stymied by Lefty Austin Gomber last night, but the Southpaw's had some great starts this season. San Diego's also 20th in OPS vs LHP compared to 5th vs RHP. They're 7th in OPS since the break and averaging more than 5 runs per game. The Rockies only have a few relievers pitching well and their closer and next best arm are unavailable. They've pitched 3 straight days throwing 49 and 45 total pitches.
LHP Martin Perez will make his San Diego debut tonight. He threw 6 shutout innings in his final start for the Pirates and is facing a Rockies offense that ranks 21st in OPS vs Lefties. It's the Padres bullpen that we're loving for tonight. San Diego has Monday after today and tomorrow's games vs Colorado. Having lost yesterday all of their high leverage arms have had at least 2 days rest and some 3. If Perez isn't sharp don't be surprised if he's pulled in the 5th. San Diego has a loaded bullpen, and they added 2 key pieces to it at the deadline. They're tied with the Mets with a .532 Win % for the final wildcard spot but have 2 more games played. Every game is a playoff game for San Diego.
9:07PM EST: A's ML +150 (3 Units).
We cashed in on Oakland +130 last night and we're backing them again tonight. This Dodgers team is a shell of itself with half an All-Star team missing. OAK SP Mitch Spence has made 13 starts this season after starting off as a reliever. He has a 3.96 ERA in his 7 Home starts but has really settled in, allowing 2ER or less in 4 of his last 5. The one outlier was a start against Baltimore that saw him allow 4ER across 6IP. All 4 came in the first inning before he locked in. Kevin Kiermaier is the only Dodger with a prior at bat against Spence and he's 0 for 2. Oakland has a good bullpen to back him.
Jack Flaherty will make his Dodgers debut. He's been pitching well and was heavily coveted at the deadline. He got traded from STL to BAL last year and really struggled with his new team. He's got some added pressure tonight. Oakland's offense just continues to hit, ranking 3rd in OPS in July and 4th since the All-Star Break. They're also responsible for Jack Flaherty's worst start of the year, plating 6 runs against him earlier this year.
