MLB
3 Picks.
6:40PM EST: A's ML +105 (3 Units).
OAK SP has a 1.17 ERA in 4 August Starts. His 25.6 Hard-Hit % is of the top 1% in baseball. Michael King of the Padres leads all qualified pitchers at 29.8%. The Reds roster has just 4 prior at bats against Bido as well. The Reds will open with Fernando Cruz and try to patch it together with their bullpen. Their pitching staff's been decimated by injury, down 4 starters and long reliever Brent Suter. Tough place to be for the Reds and Oakland saw half their Pen last night. The Reds Stadium is the most HR Friendly park over the last 3 years and Oakland's 6th in AB/HR. All 5 of their Homeruns came via the long ball yesterday and it's over 90°, 45% Humidity, and winds blowing out. Oakland's scored 5, 4, and 5 runs over their last 3.
9:40PM EST: NYM/AZ F5 Over 4.5 (2 Units).
NYM SP Luis Severino was really struggling before his last couple starts. He fired a complete game shutout against the Marlins at Home 2 starts back and allowed 1 ER on 5 IP in San Diego his last time out. He allowed 15 runs in the 3 starts leading up to that. He's been much better at Home and Miami is just bad offensively. He was lucky against San Diego. He gave up 5 hits and walked 4 so there was a lot of traffic. A 110MPH rocket off Croneworth’s bat that turned into a Double Play with the bases loaded and no outs was how SD scored their 1 run. Sevy has a 4.63 ERA on the road and Arizona has one of the hottest offenses in baseball. If Sevy pitches like he has in 5 of his last 6 starts, Arizona's going to score some runs.
AZ SP Eduardo Rodriguez has pitched rather well in 3 starts since coming off the IL. Going back, he's allowed 1 run on 5.1 IP @ MIA, 3 runs on 5 IP vs COL, and 3 runs on 5.2 IP @ CLE. Miami's offense is bad, the Rockies rarely ever hit on the road, and Cleveland's 24th in OPS this Month. He's allowed an opponent BA of .254 and really hasn't been tested. The Mets have scored 7 or more in 3 of their last 5 games and are 4th in OPS vs LHP.
10:10PM EST: Orioles ML -105 (2 Units). Neither BAL SP Corbin Burnes nor LAD SP Walker Buehler has been pitching too well but it's Burnes we trust to lock it back in. He's appeared in 201 games throughout his career and has allowed more than 4ER in 3 straight appearances just once. If he allows 4 runs tonight it would be the 2nd time. He's posted a sub 3 ERA in every Month except for July, which he finished with a 3.09 and recorded a quality start in all 5 outings. The Dodgers offense has a .206 BA and .252 xwOBA in 110 career plate appearances against Burnes. LA's offense scored just 2 runs last night and 3 the game before that. They recorded just 2 hits against Baltimore's struggling bullpen across 4.2 innings last night. Freddie Freeman is out of the lineup again tonight.
Walker Buehler returned from Tommy John surgery this year and just hasn't looked right. He had a 5.84 ERA in his first 8 starts before going back on the IL. He came back off the IL on August 14th and has made 2 starts since, allowing 4 and 3 runs on 3.1 and 4 IP. He threw 87 and 82 pitches in those outings allowing a combined 11 hits and 7 walks. He had a 4.98 ERA in 9 minor league rehab starts too. The Dodgers bullpen is solid but not unhittable.
